Up to 25,000 more people than usual could die over the next 20 years in England as a result of heavy drinking habits that began during the Covid lockdowns, according to two studies. They could also result in almost 1 million more hospital admissions and cost the NHS more than £5 billion.
The NHS-funded findings prompted fresh calls from health experts for more determined government action to reduce alcohol-related harm by tackling its price, availability and promotion.
People who were already moderate drinkers when the UK entered its first lockdown in March 2020 generally reduced their alcohol intake while there were government-ordered restrictions on social mingling. However, many who were already heavy drinkers consumed even more at a time when pubs, restaurants and other places selling alcohol were closed, leading to a sudden increase in deaths.
graph of deaths due to excess alcohol graph of deaths due to excess alcohol
Both studies looked at the potential long-term impact of the trend towards heavier consumption. One, carried out by academics at the University of Sheffield, found that in the worst-case scenario, where these people continue to drink at high levels of Covid, an estimated 25,192 extra deaths could occur, along with 972,382 hospital admissions and a cost of £5.2. bn in the NHS by 2042. It was based on modeling 45 different alcohol-related health conditions.
The other, from the Alcohol Studies Institute (IAS), gave more conservative results. The IAS, in conjunction with Lumen Health, found that, again under the most pessimistic scenario, England could see an extra 9,914 premature deaths and an extra 147,892 cases of seriously ill people with nine drink-related conditions, including breast cancer, liver cirrhosis and high. blood pressure
“These figures highlight that the impact of the pandemic on our drinking behavior is likely to cast a long shadow over our health and paint a worrying picture at a time when NHS services are already they’re under a lot of pressure because of treatment delays,” said Colin Angus, a senior. researcher in Sheffield, who led his study.
Sadie Boniface, head of research at the IAS, said: “Changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic led to a 20% rise in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020, and worrying trends continue .
“Our study projects that if alcohol consumption remains at current levels…disparities in alcohol-related deaths will also increase further than they already are. The study results should be a wake-up call to measures”.
Alcohol caused 10,700 deaths and 640,000 hospital admissions in England, costing the NHS £2.7 billion to treat in 2019, the year before Covid struck.
Elinor Jayne, director of Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems, said: “It is extremely alarming to see the devastating predicted scenarios for increased alcohol harm in England, particularly the predicted increase in premature deaths and the increase in existing health inequalities”.
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Scotland, where alcohol-related deaths rose by 17% in 2020, had seen increases in both solitary and home drinking during lockdowns. “Those who were already drinking at dangerous levels before the pandemic are likely to increase their drinking rates,” he added.
A spokesman for the Department of Health and Social Care declined to comment directly on the findings. They said only: “Alcohol misuse can ruin lives and destroy families, and we are committed to supporting those most at risk.
“It is misleading to say that the UK does not have a strategy to tackle alcohol-related harm. We published a 10-year plan to tackle drug and alcohol-related harm by 2022, backed by 532 £1 million of new funding over three years to rebuild drug and alcohol recovery and treatment services in England, as well as increase the availability of inpatient detoxification beds.”