Australia has had two years of incredibly low flu rates thanks to the isolation of COVID-19, but this year will not be the same.
The rate of cases is already rising, and this week Queensland Prime Minister Annastacia Palaszczuk made flu shots free while warning the state to prepare for a difficult winter.
“This year’s flu season is significantly bad and is comparable to the season we had in 2017,” Ms Palaszczuk said.
“So we need to go on a strike now. We need to make sure we have this precautionary measure.”
Federal health figures show that only 598 laboratory-confirmed flu cases were reported nationwide during the year to November 2021.
The flat flu figures for 2021 and 2020 show the impact of COVID isolation. (Department of Health)
But in the first four months of this year, 5,049 cases were reported nationwide.
And data from some states already shows that the May figures will quickly eclipse that figure.
So what do the numbers say so far?
These figures from Australia’s communicable disease network show that only three states (New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland) have already had more cases this year than across the country last year.
In the last two weeks of April alone, NSW reported 1,682 laboratory-confirmed cases, Victoria 814 cases and Queensland 622 cases.
States such as Tasmania and Western Australia publish single-digit case numbers.
But if we look at the figures from state health departments with more recent data, such as that of Queensland, they point to a rapid rise in infections.
Last week, 3,396 confirmed cases were reported, almost 1,000 more than the previous week, when 2,362 cases were confirmed. This is a rapid increase from several hundred in late April.
Queensland flu numbers have surpassed 3,000 this week. (Queensland Health)
And in New South Wales, a similar number of cases were recorded in the latest figures from his health department.
In the week ending May 14, there were 3,601 people with a confirmed diagnosis, 63% more than the previous week.
Thousands of people have caught the virus in NSW this year.
Who can get free flu shots?
The Australian Medical Association says other states should follow Queensland’s example and offer free injections to reduce infections and help ease the pressure on the healthcare system.
But the Queensland announcement caught GPs off guard, and patients who wanted free shots and clinics weren’t sure if they’d be reimbursed for the vaccines they already bought.
New South Wales and South Australia are considering moving.
Victorian Prime Minister Daniel Andrews says his government is talking to GPs and the Pharmacy Guild over whether the flu vaccine should be free for everyone this winter.
Andrews says he will seek a contribution from the new federal government if the state is advised to cover the cost.