Every year, we take a look at the history of Apple’s A-series silicon (debuted in iPhones and often used in iPads) to get an idea of how the next chip will perform. Combining what we know about state-of-the-art chip manufacturing and packaging processes and Apple’s previous improvements, we can generally figure out what’s coming from the next system-on-a-chip (SoC).
This year, as we look towards the A16, making that call is harder than ever. The strongest rumors suggest that the A16 will not advance to a new major manufacturing process node and will only appear in the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, with the regular iPhone 14 models using the same upgraded A15 in the iPhone. 13 Pro models. Also, we need to consider how Apple uses these designs. Previous A-series chips might have a larger “X” version intended for the iPad Pro, but now that Apple is expanding the design to an entire line of M-series chips aimed at Macs, including very powerful computers like the Mac Studio, some of these extra cores could make it to the iPhone processor.
So let’s dive in and try to predict the A16, perhaps with a slightly larger grain of salt than usual. We’re making our best educated guesses here, but there are more variables at play than in previous years, and we’re often surprised by at least a few details when Apple unveils its new iPhone chips.
One chip only Pro
Broadly speaking, the latest A-series SoC powers the entire new iPhone lineup in the fall. Sometimes the Pro models have a bit more RAM, but it’s basically the same chip. With the iPhone 13 line, Apple changed it up a bit. The iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max have more RAM (6GB compared to 4GB in the iPhone 13 and 13 mini), but also have five GPU cores where the non-pro models have four. It’s almost certainly the same chip design with one of the cores disabled, a common tactic to improve performance with advanced chip manufacturing, but it’s the first time Apple has made this distinction in iPhone models. (Perhaps confusingly, both versions of the chip are still called just “A15” and you have to dive into the tech specs to see the difference.)
The iPhone 13 Pro models have a slightly better A15 chip, but the iPhone 14 Pro may have a completely different chip than the iPhone 14.
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With the A16, most tipsters suggest that Apple plans to include the new chip only in the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max. The non-Pro iPhone 14 models will supposedly have the A15, albeit the 6GB, 5-core version found in the iPhone 13 Pro models. It’s still unclear whether Apple will essentially rename this chip “A16,” but it means a small but respectable upgrade for non-Pro models, even if they don’t get the new SoC.
This is particularly important because it could help point out what the design priorities of the A16 might be. If it’s only going to appear on iPhones that are considerably more expensive (and rumors suggest starting prices could go up by $100), then maybe it could afford to be bigger and more expensive, with a different emphasis. In addition to other features like an always-on display, the iPhone 14 Pro models are said to introduce a new 48MP rear camera. This could require much more image processing and machine learning capability.
A new old manufacturing process
The most credible rumors say that the A16 will be manufactured using a 5nm manufacturing process, just like the A15 and A14. It’s not often that Apple spends three years in a row on the same process node. Some rumors have suggested that it will be manufactured using a 4nm process, but TSMC has none. What it has is N4P, a code name for its third-generation 5nm high-performance manufacturing process. N4P offers an 11 percent increase in performance, a 22 percent improvement in energy efficiency and a 6 percent improvement in density over the original 5nm “N5” manufacturing process.
The A15 was built using a 5nm process and the A16 will likely follow suit.
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It was the A14 that was made using the N5 process, and the A15 used the second-generation N5P process, which offered some small improvements. In other words, Apple won’t get a ton of performance or power efficiency from a third-generation 5nm manufacturing process. It’s certainly not the leap we expect from TSMC’s 3nm process, which is supposed to be ready this year, but probably not in time for Apple to manufacture tens of millions of them for the launch of an iPhone 14 Pro this fall. When we move to 3nm, Apple will be able to squeeze 70 percent more transistors into the same space, with considerable power savings.
Although this third-generation 5nm process isn’t dramatically better than the second-generation one Apple used last year, we think the A16 will need to be substantially larger. We’re probably looking at 18-20 billion transistors, up from the A15’s 15 billion. Most of this is likely to happen in the Neural Engine for machine learning, the image signal processor and video encoders and decoders, and some general CPU performance improvements.
CPU performance
It doesn’t make much sense for Apple to expand beyond the current basic configuration of iPhones. Two high-performance cores and four high-efficiency cores are more than enough for a platform that almost always runs one application at a time, full-screen, with some light background processes and other applications. At least, for now.
Apple is probably more interested in improving energy efficiency and making CPU cores run faster. High-performance cores in particular are likely an area of focus, as the company relies on those to really push home Mac performance when the CPU core design ends up in M-series chips .The M3 line will likely have the same CPU core designs found in the A16, just scaled to a higher core count and perhaps with larger caches.
Don’t be surprised if the A16’s single-core CPU performance generates a Geekbench 5 score around 2000.
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A rumor from an unproven source on Twitter recently reported that the A16 is testing 42 percent faster than the A15. This is almost certainly an unreasonable expectation. I think Apple will move to LPDDR5 this year, which should improve memory bandwidth, and some other improvements, combined with higher peak clock speeds, could give Apple a 15 percent performance boost.
If Apple can continue with recent trends, the multi-core Geekbench 5 CPU score could be around 5700.
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There is one exception worth mentioning. When ARM was finalizing the ARMv9 instruction set last year, there was speculation about whether Apple would be the first to incorporate it into a design. I don’t think it was done in time, but Apple likes to be on the cutting edge here. The ARMv9 instruction set is already available on several ARM-licensed core designs (Cortex-A710, Coretex-A510). These will be used in chips like the Qualcomm Snapdragon 7 Gen 1, which will appear in Android phones later this year.
Apple does not license core ARM designs; makes its own designs compatible with the ARM instruction set. The A15 supports the ARMv8.5-A instruction set, and the move to ARMv9 could have a positive effect in some very specific performance areas. In particular, wide SIMD vertex operations (which tend to be more high-end desktop) should be much faster and more flexible.
The A16 could support the same ARMv9-compatible design as the Snapdragon 7 Gen 1.
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ARM has talked about 30 percent performance improvements at the same time as promoting the ARMv9 instructions, but the company was specifically talking about its own licensed CPU core designs there. There’s not necessarily anything about the instruction set that improves performance like that, and Apple already uses its own designs with its own customizations and extensions.
In short, the A16 might be Apple’s first ARMv9-compatible design and one of the first on the market, and that might make some very particular types of CPU operations faster, but overall performance is likely don’t shoot .
GPU performance
Apple continues to invest heavily in GPU performance, despite iPhones often being miles ahead of other premium smartphones in this area. Now that the company is expanding its chip designs into laptops and desktops, with powerful integrated graphics replacing discrete AMD GPUs, it’s even more important.
Without a huge increase in transistor density from a step to the next major process technology node, Apple probably can’t afford to greatly increase the number of GPU cores. We believe that the A16 will have five GPU cores (like the full configuration of the A15) or six, but probably not more. Still, architectural improvements and a switch to LPDDR5 RAM to increase memory bandwidth will help boost graphics performance.
3DMark’s Sling Shot test is a bit dated and the performance improvements are starting to diminish.
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We think it’s reasonable to expect a 25% to 30% improvement in GPU performance, roughly in line with the latest A-series processors. You’ll see this especially in benchmarks and tests that are currently limited by memory bandwidth.
The more modern 3DMark Wild Life test better represents the improvements in the graphics architecture. Expect the A16 to score between 85 and 90 fps.
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Apple will likely need to include hardware to accelerate ray tracing in a future GPU. It’s quickly becoming standard in laptops and desktops, and the M-series chips derive their architectures from Apple’s A-series. (Or more accurately, they’re all designed as a family of products that share important architectural elements.) Even major mobile chip designs from Qualcomm and ARM have ray tracing in their…