A daily summary of The Globe and Mail market strategist Scott Barlow’s research and analysis
Brian Belski, chief strategist at BMO, points to tougher conditions for Canadian equity investors.
“While Canadian stocks have certainly managed to escape a longer-term correction so far, as have US stocks, the Canadian market has also been struggling with the slowdown in the gain momentum and the normalization process … The market seems to be rewarding companies that are experiencing strong real earnings growth, and companies that are experiencing positive reviews, while companies with high sales and earnings growth expectations have consistently outperformed. Our profitability factors were lower than in May, which we believe suggests that investors are beginning to believe that we can be at the highest profitability for many of these companies, especially in the face of slowing economic growth and growth. In general, we continue to believe that the transition to a more profitable growth environment ormalized will likely remain erratic and favor a more selective approach to investment. As such, we believe that the investor should focus on capital deployment strategies, such as dividend growth, cash flow, and even GARP-style strategies. “
Mr. Belski examined the domestic stock market with the highest growth in dividend yields in 12 months.
Listed companies with a “higher” rating by BMO analysts are ARC Resources Ltd., Birchcliff Energy Ltd., Cascades Inc., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Crescent Point Energy Corp., Cenovus Energy Inc., Equitable Group Inc., Goeasy Ltd., Hydro One Ltd., Lundin Mining Corp., Methanex Corp., Pan American Silver Corp., Prairiesky Royalty Ltd., SSR Mining Inc., Stelco Holdings Inc., Suncor Energy Inc., Teck Resources Ltd., Tourmaline Oil Corp., Whitecap Resources Inc. and West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
“BMO Canadian Dividend Growth Screening Results” – (table) Twitter
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Morgan Stanley’s energy strategist Martijn Rats admits that Russian oil may find its way to non-European destinations after trade sanctions, but that will not help with demand for diesel.
“We suspect that the EU ban on offshore oil imports from Russia will keep the distillate market tighter for longer, supporting the prices of diesel and, ultimately, crude oil as well. Market attention has focused on the implications for crude oil, when considering the EU ban on imports from the sea from Russia, which makes sense, as crude oil accounts for the majority of crude oil exports. We hope that this ban will end up limiting Russia’s crude oil exports, but in principle, other buyers could take the place of the EU, even if only partially … but this is much less likely for diesel: EU import ban also applies to petroleum products, such as diesel, where there is a significant difference: crude oil is a truly global market – about 50% of the world’s crude oil supplies flow through the marine market im, and the average voyage of a tanker is relatively long ~ 28 days. In contrast, only 25% of the world’s average distillates (diesel + jet) are supplied through the maritime market … price risks remain skewed higher: our discounted balances continue to show a deficit of ~ 0 .5 mb / d during 2H22, which would mean oil inventories to unusually low levels. We continue to see Brent reach $ 130 / bbl during Q3 in our base case, up from our estimate of $ 150 / bbl. “
“MS: Russian oil may be diverted to Asia, but diesel is a more difficult issue” – (research excerpt) Twitter
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Also from BMO, economist Robert Kavcic emphasized a “summer of housing discontent” in the greater Toronto area.
“The Toronto Real Estate Board’s monthly figures fell on Friday, and now officially show what we’ve been shouting for a while: the housing market has weakened considerably by a penny. The reason? A simple rate hike of interest from the Bank of Canada was enough to cool unbridled demand, and continued aggressive hardening will weigh on the rest of the year. from 1.5%, to a later this year where both five-year fixed-rate and variable-rate mortgages could be in the range of 4 to 5% (fixed). under strong pressure as ratings adjust to this new reality, it could be a long, cold summer for housing. “
“BMO:” It could be a long, cold summer [GTA] housing. ”” – (excerpt from research) Twitter
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Deviation: “Everything Apple tried to kill at WWDC 2022” – Gizmodo
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