The first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season may arrive in time for the first week of the season, and will not come from where one might expect.
The remnants of what was once Hurricane Agatha in the Pacific Ocean earlier this week are now expected to become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, making it the first storm in the world. the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
Hurricane Agatha made landfall in southwestern Mexico on Monday as a Category 2 storm knocked down power lines and dumped up to 20 inches of rain. It is not expected to have the same impact when its wreckage enters the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but local meteorologists are still warning Tampa Bay residents to be careful, as the region is close to planned path of the system.
The National Hurricane Center gave the system a 70% chance of strengthening in a tropical storm or depression on Tuesday afternoon. The center expects the storm to cross the Gulf of Mexico to the south coast of the Gulf of Florida over the weekend.
However, there is still no reason to worry, said Paul Close of the Tampa Bay office of the National Weather Service. The system is still disorganized and its future is especially uncertain as a result. Three models project that the storm will hit Charlotte or Sarasota counties south of Tampa Bay. Others predict that the system will never leave mainland Mexico.
Close warns, however, that the already warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are causing the system to develop rapidly and surprise some locals.
Projection of spaghetti models for a system on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tuesday morning. [ Tropical Tidbits ]
“The guide up to this point is really everywhere,” Close said. “People here should register at least a couple of times a day. If it develops, it could happen quickly.”
If the storm is concentrated on the west coast of Florida, Close says the region would begin to feel impacts from Friday night to Saturday. Regardless of whether Alex is organized into a tropical storm or not, the National Hurricane Center says the entire west coast of Florida should be prepared for a four- to six-inch rain this weekend.
Close says few storms cross from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Basin, which also makes this system more difficult to predict than usual.
Transoceanic storms are rare in the tropics, as most dissipate as they pass through the rugged land of Central America and Mexico, but these storms are not entirely unheard of.
The most recent system that has caused its remains to survive after hitting land and becoming a named storm in a new ocean basin arrived last year. Hurricane Grace, which formed in the Atlantic, had dissipated mainly over Mexico before crossing into the Pacific Ocean and settling in Tropical Storm Marty.
It is not uncommon for storms to make the leap from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Basin, but it happened in 2020 when Tropical Storm Amanda crossed Guatemala and Belize to become Tropical Storm Cristobal in Campeche Bay.
Despite being the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, this system will get its own name because it did not maintain circulation while crossing Mexico, according to meteorologist Matthew Cappucci of The Washington Post. If it stayed organized, the system would keep Agatha’s name even after entering the Gulf of Mexico.
Early-season tropical systems are often weak because the Atlantic Ocean does not yet have the hot water needed to sustain them. Close said the Gulf of Mexico is already above 80 degrees off the coast of Florida, but it is warm enough for a system to strengthen at least in a tropical storm.
“The water is warm enough and right now that’s all you really need,” Close said.
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Tampa Bay Times 2022 Hurricane Guide
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Rising Threat: A Special Report on Flood Risk and Climate Change
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