The fate of the Italian government is at stake amid growing pressure on Mario Draghi to remain prime minister as he prepares for a crucial speech in parliament on Wednesday.
The resignation of the former head of the European Central Bank last week was rejected by President Sergio Mattarella, who instead asked him to go to parliament to try to avoid what would be the third collapse of the Italian government in three years.
His speech in the Senate will be followed by a vote of confidence.
Draghi resigned after the Five Star Movement (M5S), a key component of his broad coalition, boycotted a vote on a 26 billion-euro cost-of-living package, saying it had broken up. the pact of trust on which his administration was founded.
Unusual for Italian politics, a campaign asking him to stay has ravaged the country: more than 1,500 mayors across the political spectrum along with several unions have declared their support; Pro-Draghi demonstrations have been held in key cities and a “Draghi, stay” petition has attracted more than 100,000 signatures.
In addition, the endorsement of Draghi, called “Super Mario” for his role in saving the euro during his time as head of the ECB, has been received from international leaders who see it as essential not only to ensure stability. in Italy, but also as a partner in facing the challenges of the Russian war in Ukraine.
It is unclear whether the petitions will be enough to deter the 74-year-old, who was reported late last week unwilling to reconsider his decision.
Over the past few days, their coalition parties have struggled to give an answer ahead of Wednesday’s vote. While the center-left Democratic Party is determined to want Draghi to stay, the far-right League of Matteo Salvini and Forza Italia of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi have ruled out the possibility of continuing the Draghi government with M5S, a party that they described him as “unreliable and incompetent.” ”. Draghi also said he would not rule without M5S.
Meanwhile, the M5S, already weakened by a major exodus of MPs, still beat its position as of Tuesday afternoon. Giuseppe Conte, the former prime minister who leads the M5S, once again issued an ultimatum to Draghi, arguing that he should welcome the party’s priority policies, such as a minimum wage and a housing renovation plan ecological.
While Draghi could still rally the majority without M5S, he could decide that he has ended the coalition matches that were played regularly.
The next general election is scheduled for June 2023, but if Draghi chooses to resign, it is likely that Mattarella will dissolve parliament and call elections in late September.
“Right now we’re between 50 and 50 years old,” said Sofia Ventura, a professor of politics at the University of Bologna. “It depends on what Draghi says: he will make a harsh speech, which I don’t think will include appeasement messages in M5S.”
The plight of the Italian government comes at an extremely delicate time for international and domestic politics. Draghi, who was appointed by Mattarella in February last year to lead the country out of the coronavirus pandemic and revive its economy, has been a strong ally in supporting aid, including military aid, in Ukraine.
Priorities at home include tackling the energy crisis, approving next year’s budget and enacting reforms to receive the next tranche Italy will receive from its € 200 billion share of the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund.
“If, in the end, Draghi has to support a capricious majority, he won’t end up doing what he wants,” Ventura said. “It will be infernal for him to maintain good relations in the coming months, but his international position is important, also because the alternative is not very good.”
A recent poll found that if early elections are held, a coalition led by Italy’s far-right brothers and including the League and Forza Italia could win the majority.
Stefano Ceccanti, a Democratic Party MP, is convinced that the government led by Draghi will continue, with or without M5S.
“During periods of war, a government cannot collapse,” he said. “Even without M5S, this would allow us to move forward with a more homogeneous majority.”
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Italy’s support for sending weapons to Ukraine and its plans to increase military spending have been another point of discussion for M5S.
Cristian Romaniello, a former M5S MP who is now a member of Europa Verde, an Italian green party created last year, said the rise in military spending has led to cuts in key areas such as education and health. “I see people who are afraid that their government experience will end and have elections; if the conditions for governing are still there, that’s fine, otherwise I’m not afraid of a government collapse,” he said.