On July 12, 2021, the Edmonton Oilers acquired Duncan Keith and Tim Soderlund from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Caleb Jones and a conditional selection from the 2022 draft. The selection was the 94th and Arizona (which had negotiated with Chicago) select Jeremy Langlois.
Keith’s trade was a big win for the Oilers.
I was aware that I liked the job at the time. The main reason Chicago didn’t withhold money was because Keith could retire this summer and the Hawks would have a massive penalty to get their heads back. They have a $ 5.538 million cap this year and $ 1.938 billion next season. If Keith had stayed in Chicago, they would probably have reached an agreement for him to go to LTIR this season, earn his remaining $ 1.5 million, and the Hawks would have earned $ 5.538 million with him at LTIR. When it was negotiated, this option was not there, so there was no salary withheld.
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For the Oilers, the trade worked gloriously. Yes, Keith played in the first four minutes, and for the last three months of the season he mentored Evan Bouchard. Bouchard spoke enthusiastically about how much he learned from Keith. In one of the first discussions they had, Keith told Bouchard that there was an invisible line in the middle of the ice, and that everyone would stay by his side, just to try to simplify things for the beginner. Of course, sometimes you have to change sides, but getting used to staying by your side and trusting your partner is key to success.
In the first 44 games of the season, Bouchard played 757 minutes in 5 × 5 and mostly with Darnell Nurse. His breakdown of opponents was 228 min against Elite (30.1%), 248 against Medium (32.8) and 281 against Grit (37.1%) via PuckIQ.com.
His GF-GA was 7-9 against Elite, 6-13 against Medium and 20-16 against Grit. A total of 33-38 (46.48 GF%). In the same 44 games, Keith’s GF percentage was 52.8 (28-23), the best among the Oilers ’top five defenders.
When Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson were hired, they changed their defensive partners. They put Darnell Nurse with Cody Ceci and gave them a big dose of Elite competition, and paired Bouchard with Keith. Both pairings worked.
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Bouchard played 551 minutes in 38 games, mostly with Keith. He played 124 against Elite (22.5%), 193 against Middle (35%) and 234 against Grit (42.5)
His GF-GA was 10-4 against Elite, 11-12 against Medium and 8-5 against Grit for a total of 29-21 (58%). Keith led the Oilers defenders with a 64.86 GF% (24-13) under Manson.
Manson reduced Bouchard’s minutes against elite and a half players by a total of 5%. He protected him a little more with Keith and it worked. Putting players in better positions to succeed is one of the most important aspects of training.
Keith was not a Norris Trophy caliber player in Edmonton, but his possession numbers were solid. He finished the season with 52% CF%, 51.9FF%, 51.4SF%, 50.7xGF%, 48.9HDCF%, and in actual goals he had 57.8GF% and 63.08HDGF%.
He led all Oilers defenders in GA / 60 at 2.14. Limiting goals is quite important. I can’t understand why some people keep repeating that Keith had a mediocre season. He was close to first place in most categories and led in some keys for the Oilers defenders.
Many will mention that he allowed tickets to the area. That’s a statistic, but it didn’t affect his goals against. And yes, the weird times Keith would get, but getting hit from time to time doesn’t erase the times he made good plays. I’m still amazed that people hook him up for Adrian Kempe’s goal in extra time. Keith had been on the ice for 70 seconds, Kempe had just stepped on the ice and was in mid-flight, while Keith had moved in the middle of the ice anticipating a change, before Evander Kane fell into the neutral zone and Kempe picked up the puck at full speed. People act like Keith makes a blatant play on that goal.
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Keith played the first four minutes for the Oilers, helped mentor Evan Bouchard, was a quiet voice in the locker room as the Oilers lost LA 2-1 and 3-2 in the series that his teammates said team, and the Oilers got it. the Final of the Conference. I don’t see how anyone can see trade as negative. Keith had a positive influence for a season, and has now retired and released $ 5.538 billion. It cost them Caleb Jones, who couldn’t have done what Keith did in Edmonton, and a third-round pick.
The only way the exchange could have worked better was if the Oilers had made it to the Stanley Cup, but they weren’t as good as Colorado. If the Oilers had Victor Hedman in Keith’s place, they would still have lost that series. Colorado was too deep, but Keith’s presence in Edmonton was nothing more than positive when you look at the results and hear Connor McDavid and others talk about what they learned from Keith. He was not a great speaker, but when he spoke of keeping calm, even keeling and not going down, when the Kings followed, those words had a great impact on his companions. If they think his words mattered, how can people who are not in the room claim not to?
Keith will officially retire this week and then wait three years before becoming a member of the Hall of Fame of the first ballot. He had a spectacular career, and his only season in Edmonton helped him finish his career on a positive note while helping the Oilers get a much-needed playoff experience.
OTHER NOTES …
March 26, 2022; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers right winger Zack Kassian (44) against the Calgary Flames during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Often, the hardest decision is admitting that you made a mistake and then trying to rectify it. Ken Holland overpaid Zach Kassian when he signed him for a four-year, $ 3.2 million AAV. At the time the Oilers didn’t have Evander Kane or Zach Hyman, Kailer Yamamoto was in minors and Jesse Puljujarvi was fighting. Holland clearly expected Kassian to produce more, but he didn’t.
Holland might have bought Kassian, but I actually think switching to Arizona for a selection from the third round of 2024 and the second round of 2025 was the best option. Neither was great, and they inflicted self-infliction, but Holland didn’t let the initial mistake get affected and remain a detriment.
The key to Kassian’s trade, and the opening of $ 3.2 million in a maximum space, is to ensure that the Netherlands does not overpay anyone with that money. Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi could get $ 1.6 million each and both would have $ 2.7 million in salaries next season. Maybe they come a little lower, or higher, but from my seat it would be a good use of the lid space. I recognize that Puljujarvi could be treated, he seems more likely to do so, but if he does not (the Netherlands will not give him away), then I see that the increase is fair.
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He could also use part of Keith’s cap space to sign Brett Kulak. There aren’t many D men left on the market, and none that I see as clear improvements over Kulak. Kulak and Philip Broberg would be the second and third LD pair. Kulak hasn’t played regularly in the top four, but if Manson plans to run Nurse-Ceci’s heavy minutes again against the elites next year, then Kulak, even in a second pair, won’t be asked that he makes a much stronger competition than him. in the past, so signing it makes sense. Just remember that if you sign him and sometimes he fights in a role of the top four, don’t be scared, because he still has to play it constantly. Asking players to do more than they usually do is fine, but if it’s not successful, you don’t hate the player, just realize it wasn’t the best plan to start with.
With Detroit acquiring Ville Husso and signing him for a three-year, $ 4.75 million AAV, Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell are the two most attractive UFA goalie options for Edmonton for free agency. Kuemper earned $ 5.5 million last season ($ 4.5 million AAV), while Campbell’s salary was $ 1.8 million with an AAV of $ 1.65 million. Kuemper has just won a Cup, and even though they didn’t have big playoffs, he is still Stanley Cup champion and that will carry weight when free agency starts on Wednesday.
Kuemper will cost more, but he also has a longer resume than Campbell. In the last nine seasons, Kuemper has played 282 games. He has a career Sv% of .918 and in his last five regular seasons his 2018-2022 Sv% is .919, .925, .928, .907 and .921. His performance in the playoffs was affected by the fact that he had to go to train his eyes every few days and suffered from vision problems due to a previous concussion.
Campbell is two years younger than Kuemper, but has far less experience in the NHL. He has started 120 games in the last four seasons. He started 25, 26, 22 and 47 games in this period and his annual Sv% was .928, .904, .921 and .914. He has not been as consistent as Kuemper.
However, the last two seasons have been pretty close.
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Kuemper started 84 games and was 47-23-7 with a .917Sv%, 2.55 GAA and seven whites.
Campbell started 69 games with a 48-12-8 with a .916Sv%, 2.49 GAA and seven whites.
Last season was Campbell’s first as a regular starter. In his first 20 starts, he was on fire with a .939Sv% and 1.89 GAA. But then in its next 19 starts, it posted an ugly .886Sv% and 3.51 GAA. He missed a month due to injury (and perhaps some of the previous 19 games the rib injury was a factor), and in his last eight starts, he had a .915Sv% and a 2.59 GAA. He started strong and finished solid, but had a tough middle.
Campbell should sign for a lower AAV than Kuemper. Kuemper was the fifth-best in savings above expectations in the regular season and Campbell was 26th among goalkeepers with more than 30 starters. Kuemper has been the most consistent goalkeeper, and Edmonton was on the verge of acquiring him last season, before Seattle signed Grubauer, and Colorado sent Arizona a better commercial offer for Kuemper.
These are the UFA goalkeeper contracts of the last two seasons:
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Matt Murray four years $ 6.25 million AAV with Ottawa. Jacob Markstrom six years, $ 6 million AAV with Calgary. Braden Holtby two years, $ 4.6 million …