When Penny Wong was sworn in as Secretary of State, she took a deep breath and exhaled heavily. The enormity of the task was not lost on her.
It just gets harder from here on out.
Wong accompanied Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to the Quad meeting in Japan. The two will join the hip for the next three years.
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The Quad is the easiest
Foreign affairs and security were important in the elections, they will look even more important on the Albanian government.
Quad meeting is the easy part. The time when the left in the Labor Party was suddenly looking at the American alliance has passed.
Australia no longer pretends that we should not choose between our friend, ally and big brother of security, the USA, and our biggest trading partner, China. We chose.
Morrison’s government has severed ties with the United States and tightened its stance on China. Labor has made sure there is no light between major parties when it comes to Australia’s security.
China is already testing Albanese’s determination
But this election will come at a cost. We will spend more on defense. We will also be targeting China.
China has used trade as a weapon, banning some Australian exports, and will continue to do so.
Beijing could have blatantly congratulated Albanese, but Australia remains in the crosshairs of the great power rivalry between the US and China.
Xi Jinping’s mission is to return China to the top of world power and the Pacific is the zero zone. Solomon’s security pact was a wake-up call. And now China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has embarked on a Pacific tour.
Xi Jinping’s mission is to return China to the top of world power. (AP: Huang Jingwen / Xinhua)
This is a direct challenge to what the United States considers its sphere of influence. Wang is marking the first week of the Albanian government. China is signing more Pacific nations.
This is a direct test of Albanese’s determination.
Australia is the largest aid donor to the region, but China has deep pockets, is building infrastructure, providing investment and enrolling the Pacific nations in its massive Strip and Route initiative, a Silk Road of the Century. XXI, which opens China to all corners of the world and consolidates its influence as the main driver of world economic growth.
China is building an army to add muscle to its financial influence. He has vindicated and militarized the disputed islands of the South China Sea.
Taiwan requires a delicate diplomatic dance
President Xi has threatened to take Taiwan, considered by Beijing as a renegade province, by force, if necessary.
That would put him on a collision course with the United States. Taiwan is a delicate diplomatic dance: the recognition of a China and the strategic ambiguity about what would happen in Beijing altered the status quo.
President Joe Biden has darkened the waters, reiterating that America would come to the aid of Taiwan in a conflict. Although the White House is trying to back down on these comments, it reminds Anthony Albanese that he may have to decide at some point whether to send Australia to war.
While the conflict is raging in Ukraine as Xi Jinping’s friend Vladimir Putin continues his brutal invasion, it is the Indo-Pacific that could trigger World War III.
This is the most militarized region in the world; has the largest number of nuclear-armed states (China, North Korea, India, Pakistan), with Japan able to rapidly increase nuclear weapons capacity if necessary.
Boundaries and waters are bitterly disputed. China and India have come to hit their disputed borders. China and Japan have been surrounded by the controversial Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands.
The region is full of ethnic and religious hatreds and long-lasting memories of historical humiliation.
U.S. President Joe Biden Joe Biden has said the United States would come to Taiwan’s aid in a conflict. (ABC News: Yumi Asada)
The Quad also provides moral choices
The Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the United States) is a democratic bloc to counter China’s push.
But not all democracies are the same. India, our Quad partner, is led by Narendra Modi, who some see as an autocrat whose Hindu nationalism is a threat to what has been a robust democracy.
India has close ties with Russia, which has been its main arms supplier. India, like China, abstained from a United Nations vote condemning Russia for the war in Ukraine.
The world is messy. There are few moral certainties, only moral choices.
When an authoritarian regime is also an indispensable nation, the options become more complex. And China will become the largest economy in the world.
Isolating China will not be like isolating Russia.
India, led by Narendra Modi, has close ties to Russia, which has been its main arms supplier. (Reuters: Adnan Abidi)
Work and vision of the worker
How will a Labor government do it? Last year, in a wide-ranging speech at the National University of Australia, Penny Wong set out her vision. It is taking the world as it is and changing it for the better.
She wants to show the contemporary face of Australia to the world. A diverse country. Only his presence speaks of this.
She wants to put First Nations people and culture at the center of our national identity that determines the values of our foreign policy.
There is more emphasis on Southeast Asia with the increase in aid, as well as in the Pacific.
As Labor follows the Morrison government’s stance, there will be less talk of war drums. There will be changes in the emphasis and priority of foreign policy.
Climate change is one of them. Labor’s emission reduction policy is now more in line with Biden’s American direction. Albanese has already acknowledged that for the Pacific nations, the climate is the biggest economic and security challenge.
But China is the big question. Can Albanese and Wong fix ties without appeasing the Beijing thugs?
There may be a time in the Albanian honeymoon period to restart with China. At the very least, the government can reopen communication with Beijing.
But showing Australia’s kindest and kindest face in the world won’t influence Beijing. And at home, China will be a battlefield.
Following the script
An opposition led by Peter Dutton (as it seems likely) will build its way back to power around security. Yes, there is a bipartisan agreement on the threat from China. But Dutton will take advantage of any sign of job weakness as a betrayal.
Security speaks with slogans and diplomacy in whispers. For Albanese and Wong, achieving the right combination of security, defense and diplomacy will be crucial.
Under Scott Morrison, the defense minister led a more muscular approach to China, with foreign affairs taking a back seat.
Albanese swore Penny Wong immediately; we do not yet have a defense minister and whoever is sure will not have the profile or influence of the foreign minister.
Albanese follows the script of calling China’s aggression. As he reminds us, it is China that has changed, not Australia.
He is right: China has changed. He no longer “hides”; Xi believes the time has come for China. Even U.S. military figures admit that China has upset the balance of power and could win a regional war.
In China it is said that two tigers cannot live on the same mountain.
Penny Wong is right to take a deep breath.
Stan Grant is ABC’s international affairs analyst and presents China tonight at 9:35 p.m. on ABC TV, and Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. on ABC News Channel, and a Q + co-presenter On Thursday at 8:30 p.m.
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Posted 1 h 1 hours agoDmec. May 25, 2022 at 12:56 pm, updated 1 hour ago 1 hour agoWednesday May 25, 2022 at 1:13 AM