We are almost a whole week away from last Saturday’s federal election, and Labor is now in a seat to form a majority government, where it can govern in its own right.
The Tasmanian headquarters in Lyon convened on Thursday afternoon, bringing the ALP to 75 seats.
This means that four seats are still in doubt.
This is how things look at the moment.
The seats are still in doubt
Macnamara, Victoria
With 73.3% of the vote counted, Labor leader Josh Burns leads by 17,885 votes.
ABC Chief Election Analyst Antony Green explains that the scrutiny figures are based on an AEC preference launch for the five least-voted candidates producing 18 percent preference flows for Labor, 34 per cent for the Greens and 48 per cent for the Liberals.
“Applying them puts the three final candidates less than 1,000 votes apart,” he said.
“If the Greens or the Liberals are third, Labor wins. If the Labor candidate is third, the Greens win.
“That’s why Macnamara is being left in doubt.”
This electorate includes the suburbs of Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Middle Park, South Yarra, St Kilda, Balaclava, Elwood and parts of Elsternwick and Caulfield.
Brisbane, Queensland
Green says the Brisbane count will first exclude the four candidates with the fewest votes.
“This will determine an order for the three final candidates: LNP, Labor and Greens,” he said.
“The preference count shown here uses a preference estimate for the first four exclusions provided to me by the scrutineers. That’s 35.1% for the Greens, 15.6% for Labor and 49. 3% for LNP “.
Green says this currently puts the Greens ahead of Labor during the distribution of preferences. This could lead to the Greens defeating the LNP.
However, he added, the result “may win Labor back if an additional count changes the balance of early Labor versus green preferences or alters the order of exclusion during the distribution of preferences”.
With 70.8 percent of the vote counted, Greens candidate Stephen Bates leads by 4,126 votes.
This electorate includes the suburbs of New Farm, Newstead, Bowen Hills, Windsor, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Enoggera, Wilston, Albion, Clayfield, Ascot, Hamilton, Lutwyche, Wooloowin, and parts of Stafford.
Deakin, Victoria
With 83.7 percent of the vote counted, the seat of outgoing Liberal assistant treasurer Michael Sukkar is still a close call.
Sukkar is currently ahead of Matt Gregg of the Labor Party by 1,032 votes.
Deakin includes all or parts of the suburbs of Blackburn, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Vermont, Ringwood, Heathmont, Croydon, and Bayswater North.
Gilmore, New South Wales
Gilmore’s federal headquarters has only 286 votes separating Liberal rival, former NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance and incumbent Fiona Phillips.
Gilmore is a mixed electorate, covering 6,342 square miles on the south coast of NSW.
There has been a narrow margin in this race and more votes are expected to arrive by mail by June 3rd.
Follow all post-election actions while the counting continues
This meeting was called on Thursday:
Lyons, Tasmania
Labor MP Brian Mitchel has retained the Tasmanian seat in Lyon, defeating Susie Bower of the LNP, says Anthony Green, ABC’s chief election analyst.
Lyon is Tasmania’s largest electorate and occupies just under half of the state.
When will the counting end?
Including in-person votes, there have also been a lot of postal votes to resolve, and many of them take up to two weeks to arrive before being counted.
These postal votes could be vital in determining the outcome in some extremely tight but narrow seats.
Australian Electoral Commission staff have been sorting and counting votes since the polls closed on Saturday 21 May.
Electoral basics:
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Posted 1 hour 1 hour agoThursday, May 26, 2022 at 11:46 PM, last updated 1 hour ago 1 hour ago Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 11:57 PM