Monkeypox samples are being studied at the University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory. Photo: JUDY GRIESEDIECK / Star Tribune (Getty Images)
Cases of smallpox in monkeys continue to rise worldwide, with more than 200 confirmed and suspected cases documented in more than 20 countries. Scientists are beginning to gather their first clues about these outbreaks, including how the virus could have begun to spread farther than ever.
According to a Global.health group tracker, there were 174 confirmed cases and 93 suspicious cases from 21 countries on Tuesday afternoon. The United Kingdom and Spain have reported the majority of cases, and at least seven cases have been reported in the United States, including one in New York City. No deaths have been reported so far; the type of monkeypox virus associated with these cases is known to have a mortality rate of around 1%.
Viral disease tends to cause large rashes all over the body, along with flu-like symptoms. It can take up to three weeks after exposure for symptoms to begin and two weeks for the disease to go away. The virus spreads mainly through direct contact, although it can also spread through contaminated surfaces, as well as respiratory droplets and aerosols. Infected people are not considered contagious until they begin to show symptoms.
The monkeypox, closely related to the now extinct smallpox virus, is endemic to parts of Africa and is thought to normally infect rodents. Since its discovery in the 1950s, it has occasionally jumped from animal to human, causing localized outbreaks with limited human-to-human transmission. This makes these newer cases very different from previous virus raids. But we can have some early indications of what is happening.
An electron microscope image of a single monkeypox virus.Picture: Cynthia S. Goldsmith, Russell Regner / CDC via AP (AP)
G / O Media may receive a commission
Save $ 70
Apple AirPods Max
Experience first-rate SoundSpatial audio with dynamic head tracking that delivers a theater-like sound to your surroundings.
Some researchers have been able to genetically sequence virus samples collected from patients. These results suggest that the strains in these cases are closely related to the strains recently collected in Nigeria, where the outbreaks have been ongoing since 2018. So far, at least, there does not appear to be evidence that the virus has mutated significantly. since then, which is reassuring. But more research will be needed to rule out the possibility that it will somehow become more inherently transmissible between humans.
“In the past, it has spread from human to human, but it has been quite limited. We still don’t know that it is spreading more easily from person to person. This is a possible explanation, but I still don’t know any evidence that gives support for this idea, “Andrew Pavia, a University of Utah infectious disease physician, told Gizmodo last week.
If the virus has not changed intrinsically, these outbreaks may be the result of other factors, including how they are being caught. Many cases have been found in recently sexually active gay and bisexual young men. And a World Health Organization adviser has argued that its spread could have been amplified by two recent exaltations in Spain and Belgium, where casual sex was common.
Even if this turns out to be true, however, it would not mean that gay or bisexual men are the only people at risk, as the virus can be spread through direct contact between any sexual partners. It is also possible that these cases were first encountered simply because these people tend to be more aware of the risk of sexually transmitted infections in general and as a result are more likely to see a doctor regularly. On Tuesday, the popular dating app Grindr sent a warning about monkeypox to its users, advising them to seek medical help if they or a recent sexual partner develop unusual sores or rashes.
Other experts have argued that the virus may be spreading further now due to decreased immunity to the smallpox-related virus, after its eradication in 1980. Poxviruses often cause cross-immunity with other poxviruses, but this protection it has faded over time in the general population for a variety of reasons, according to Jo Walker, an infectious disease epidemiologist and modeler at the Yale School of Public Health.
“This ‘diminished immunity’ is due less to the decline in immunity at the individual level, and more due to the death of people with immunity and people born without immunity and then remaining non-immune,” Walker told Gizmodo the last week.
The monkeypox risk to the general public is still considered low. And for now, says Pavia, there is no reason to panic or for most people to have any worries. “But it’s the early days, so that may change,” he noted.
In fact, health officials in Europe have warned that if these outbreaks are not contained quickly and effectively, the virus could spread to new parts of the world and cause regular outbreaks from there. And while monkeypox can be controlled with vaccines and preventative treatments, the last thing the world needs right now is the problems of another emerging infectious disease.
This article has been updated with comments from Andrew Pavia and Jo Walker.