Mandatory credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
The draft NHL has arrived and is gone, and while we’ll be continuing the series of low-season game plans soon, we’re taking a break and reviewing the draft.
Before the draft, I wrote:
For me, a successful draft weekend for the Leafs includes lowering their pay and adding more draft options. If they somehow get a trade to bring in a quality NHLer? Even better. If the Leafs Bras show up, make three picks and come home, it would be a disappointing draft weekend in Toronto.
Finally, the Leafs ticked those two squares. There was a predictable downward shift from 79 to pick up options 95 and 135. We also mentioned that they might consider trading with their capital in upcoming drafts to supplement this, which they did by acquiring a fourth-round 2022 (no. 122) of the Nashville Predators in exchange for a fourth round of 2023.
From now on, the Leafs will enter the 2023 NHL draft with first, third, fifth and sixth round picks. I know draft picks aren’t the priority right now, but the Leafs haven’t selected in each of the first two rounds in three of the last four drafts. They haven’t selected more than twice in the first two rounds since 2016. We keep saying that, but it will sound true at some point: the franchise will feel it, especially because the Leafs ’elite players have new contracts. in the coming years. Young players with entry-level contracts make life a lot easier and also provide the currency to do important operations.
We also talked about lowering the salary, which the Leafs got, though not in the way we commented. Frankly, I would like to explore Petr Mrazek in more detail, but at the same time, I thought it would cost the club more than it cost him. Elimination of the entire Mrazek contract for the price drop from 25 to 38 is not what I expected.
The Oilers sent No. 29 pick to the Coyotes, along with a second-round pick in 2024 and a third-round pick in 2025 to take on Zack Kassian’s contract. In return, the Oilers acquired selection number 32.
In 2019, Kyle Dubas changed Patrick Marleau and the remaining year of his contract for a conditional first-round pick in the 2020 draft (Seth Jarvis) and a seventh-round pick in the 2020 draft (Alexander Pashin) in return of a sixth-round pick in the 2020 draft (Axel Rindell).
These are the prices I was expecting to see, and they just weren’t nice to me given the lack of selection the Leafs had at their disposal to begin with. Clarifying Mrazek’s entire contract, which still has two years left, at the expense of dropping 13 places in the draft is a clear victory for me.
The fact that the Leafs watched the first round to see how it was being played before pulling the trigger suggests to me that they didn’t think enough about who was available at the time to just stay and make the selection. If they had done this trade before the draft began, it would have been a different story. It’s a low price to pay compared to many other trades we’ve seen how teams do to clear boundary space.
Prior to the exchange, Dubas noted:
“If I’m predicting and betting on him, I bet he was the goalkeeper who was last year in 20 games, or the goalkeeper who was out of the previous 270, which was a .910 type of savings he can give. an opportunity for his team to win? I would probably bet on the biggest show “.
The truth is, I think Mrazek is a great bet to bounce back, but bouncing on a bad team with very little to play versus playing on a team hoping to chase a Stanley Cup is a very different kind of pressure. I don’t doubt Mrazek’s ability, he’s a legitimate NHL goalie, but the problem is his ability to stay healthy. That’s why, I suspect, the Leafs spread out and get angry at the idea of classifying Ondrej Kase as well. It’s hard to build a team with continuity when you can’t rely on certain players to stay healthy.
As for the draft selections, we have already analyzed them quite in depth, but here I will add and reiterate a few things. They should swing for a goalie in every draft, and they’ve done that in six of the last seven. The entire goalkeeping department of this organization should be audited if they can’t finally turn one of them into a viable NHL asset. It would represent many swings with few results. Since James Reimer in 2006 they have not drafted any consequential goalkeeper; at some point, this is not simply because they are writing poorly.
This is the second straight draft in which the Leafs have not selected any defense, which is a bit wild when we really think about it. It coincides with an interesting moment with a stagnation of the contract between the organization and the promising Rasmus Sandin. It’s not like the Leafs don’t have other young defenses. I’m sure they would argue that they’re just selecting the best player available and that’s how the board came about, but they’re still zero defenses in two draft classes. It’s also what happens when a team doesn’t have draft options in general. They will get lost somewhere, and you have to think you will feel it at some point.
Beyond that, it was nice to see the Leafs select a high center in the draft. A team can never have enough; they always have demand. On the one hand they have lost the defenses, but on the other they have added a goalkeeper and a center.
The Leafs have also generally been successful in selecting players with whom they have closer ties. In the case of this project, the example would refer to Nick Moldenhauer, who plays for USHL’s Chicago Steel: The Leafs recently hired their former general manager, Ryan Hardy. Rasmus Sandin was selected from Sault Ste. Marie, and I would say he is currently more promising than almost all the players who were selected after him. Matthew Knies created a very promising +1 draft season: Tri-City Storm’s player development director used to be the Leafs ’video coach. It doesn’t always work, but there has been success in the past when the Leafs have deeper ties to perspective.
The carousel of porters
Photo: USA Today Sports
The draft was almost a side story when it came to the Leafs and the draft. To finish:
- Petr Mrazek was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks
- Ville Husso was acquired by the Detroit Red Wings
- Vitek Vanecek was acquired by the New Jersey Devils
- Alexander Georgiev was acquired by Colorado Avalanche
- Marc-Andre Fleury re-signed with Wild
- Casey DeSmith re-signed with the Penguins
This leaves very little to the doorman market. We have Jack Campbell and Darcy Kuemper as legitimate free agent holders (and even then, I suggest Campbell has no warranty). There is a collection of porters that are plausibly available through trade.
This is the kind of decision that this management group will make or break. If they spoil the goalkeeper position completely, and have had a number of failures in the position over the years, this is legitimately the kind of decision a GM fires. It’s one thing to create a good regular season team that can’t break the playoffs; it’s something else that can be lost by cratering the team to the most important position in the game.
There are rumors circulating about Matt Murray and the Leafs. At the right type according to a sweetener and great retention, it might make sense. Ideally, there is a double hold (i.e., Ottawa retains him and switches him to an intermediate team, which then retains him more and returns him to the Leafs), and his maximum hit falls between $ 2 million and $ 3 million. But even if that’s the case, the Leafs should introduce a viable backup option.
Murray has not played more than 38 games in a season since the 2018-19 campaign. He signed a great contract in Ottawa and basically played out of the league at one point. Even if the Leafs want to bet on a rebound, well enough; has a savings rate of 0.911 in his career, is 28 years old and has won 2 cups; they can’t count on him to be able to handle a incumbent’s workload and then have a good performance in the playoffs. That’s a big question.
If the Leafs trade Murray and count on him, it’s not much of a safety plan to just let Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll fight behind him. There must be coverage on a goalie with real NHL credentials.
Conversely, if the Leafs got a proven rookie, I would say they could justify running with the young backups. However, even though he was Darcy Kuemper, he has started more than 50 games twice in his career and now has 32. It’s hard to find starting goalkeepers who are proven workhorses in this league.
In the absence of one, acquiring Matt Murray at a reduced price and incorporating another legitimate goalkeeper as cover is something that might make sense. Petr Mrazek was a plausible choice to pair with another rising goalkeeper, but the Leafs cleared the deck and decided to go in a completely different direction. As stated above, we can see why they wanted to do it, but now the board is empty of any goalkeeper with a real NHL pedigree.
There’s also the question of how the Leafs will improve the striker group to go with the resolution of the goalkeeper’s position. For Kyle Dubas and the Maple Leafs, a fascinating week of high-stakes decisions is expected.