Earlier this week, we predicted that Lightyear would have an easy weekend win, with a projected release of $ 80 million. Unfortunately, our numbers were a long way off this time around (although our track record is still very good), with THR reporting that Lightyear’s Friday box office was softer than expected. In fact, the Pixar tent is in danger of losing its box office run to Jurassic World: Dominion in its second week. Trade reports say Lightyear earned $ 20.7 million on Friday compared to Dominion $ 15.7 million. However, the gap may be narrowing as the holiday weekend progresses (Monday is Juneteenth, which is now a U.S. federal holiday).
Revised estimates put Lightyear’s debut at $ 52 million to $ 55 million for the weekend, which may not be big enough to fight Dominion. Currently, THR sets the dinosaur sequel at $ 57 million. Even if Lightyear reaches number one, the release will certainly be disappointing, especially considering that Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was released earlier this year with $ 72 million. That was before viewers began returning to theaters en masse thanks to Tom Cruise and Doctor Strange.
Despite the soft release, Lightyear has done well with the critics, getting a fresh rating of 77% (we gave it a 7/10) and an A-Cinemascore (the same as Dominion). Could it be that the audience is more accustomed to watching animated films at home after all the Pixar movies that went straight to Disney + (Turning Red, Luca, Soul)? It’s a worrying development, as a spin-off of Buzz Lightyear Toy Story seemed safe at the box office. There is a possibility that the family audience will discover the film as the summer passes, but here’s the thing: they don’t have to. They know that sooner or later (and I bet it will be sooner), the movie will appear on Disney +. An opening like this is the danger that the public is programmed to watch a certain type of film at home.
Will you see Lightyear in theaters?