A move by Lithuania to hurt Russia by banning rail traffic from certain goods to a Russian enclave is proof of how the West is fighting Moscow under the brink of total war.
Moscow reacted with outrage, warning that it would take unspecified action against Vilnius if cargo restrictions on trains traveling to and from Kaliningrad were not lifted.
This probably does not mean that the Kremlin would launch a conventional military attack, especially since Lithuania is a member of NATO.
President Vladimir Putin knows that this escalation would put his country in direct conflict with the 30-member transatlantic alliance.
Ukraine news live: Russia threatens EU member over “openly hostile” decision in Kaliningrad
However, he has a range of options in a gray area of damage that lies between war and peace, though he is not so openly aggressive. This could include more cyberattacks, new attempts at disinformation operations, or specific sanctions.
It is an area where both NATO allies and Moscow have been attacking each other for years, but with much more intensity following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO.
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The European Union has imposed overwhelming sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. It is a form of economic warfare, with Moscow revolting in kind, even restricting the flow of oil and gas.
Lithuania said it was only implementing the new EU rules by opting to block the transit of sanctioned goods, such as steel, traveling to and from Kaliningrad via the only railway line connected to the territory. It means that the only way for Russia to supply the territory now without worrying about EU sanctions is through the sea.
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Kaliningrad, with about 430,000 people, is surrounded by Lithuania and Poland, also an EU country.
Vilnius will be fully aware of possible retaliation from Moscow. But Russia would be wary of going too far and provoking a response from the entire NATO alliance, despite its threatening rhetoric.