Which seats are still in doubt?
We’re almost a whole week away from last Saturday’s federal election, and there are still four seats in question across the country.
Currently, the number of Labor is 75, a seat to form a majority government where they can govern in their own right.
ABC chief election analyst Antony Green explains how far some of those remaining seats are.
Brisbane, QLD – Greens ahead
The Brisbane count will first exclude the four candidates in the lowest polls. This will determine an order for the three final candidates, LNP, Labor and Green. The preference count shown here uses a preference estimate for the first four exclusions provided to me by the tellers, which is 35.1% for Greens, 15.6% for Labor and 49.3% to the LNP.
This currently puts the Greens ahead of Labor during the distribution of preferences and causes the Greens to defeat the LNP. The result can lead to the victory of the job if a subsequent count changes the balance of the first job preferences versus the green one or alters the exclusion order during the distribution of preferences.
Deakin, VIC – Probably Liberals
Michael Sukkar leads by 1,032 votes.
Gilmore, NSW – The Liberals Ahead
Andrew Constance leads by 286 votes.
Macnamara, VIC – Probable work
Ballot figures based on an AEC preference vote for the five lowest-ranking candidates produce 18% preference flows for Labor, 34% for Greens and 48% for Liberals. The application of these places the three final candidates at a distance of a thousand votes between them. If the green or liberal candidates are third, Labor will win. If Labor candidates are third, the Greens win. For this reason Macnamara is left in doubt.