Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed European Union leaders in Brussels last month. Credit … Olivier Matthys / Associated Press
BRUSSELS – Ukraine’s European allies are facing issues of both tactical and political importance as the bloody battles in the east of the country continue and tilt in favor of Russia.
On the tactical front, NATO allies, and especially those around Ukraine, face the challenge of taking advantage of their own supplies to support the war effort, leaving them with exhausted arsenals.
And in the political arena, the question of whether the European Union will make the leap to grant Ukraine candidate status for the bloc will have to be answered before the end of the month.
The realities of the battlefield, as Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia could completely encircle the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk in the Donbas region in the next two to three days, are likely to influence both the decision on how to replenish the arsenals and send ammunition. as in the decision to offer hope to Ukraine by granting it EU candidate status, even though technically it is not prepared for it.
“There was always the feeling that when the center of gravity shifted south and east, there would be the possibility of more Russian gains based on greater mass and its existing land acquisitions,” Ian Lesser said. , a former State Department official who heads the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund.
“But it raises more serious long-term questions about the nature of the conflict, Ukraine’s goals and Western goals in relation to them,” he added.
He said that accelerating the supply of long-range weapons at the request of Ukraine, as well as the necessary training for Ukrainian troops to operate them, would help the country maintain the front.
But several EU member states are concerned that they have shipped too much of their ammunition supply to Ukraine and are lagging behind in replenishing their arsenals. The mainly free trade bloc, for which foreign policy and defense are not integrated, is meeting to obtain supplies.
EU officials said the bloc would try to take advantage of a € 9 billion ($ 9.5 billion) funding pool to jointly acquire military equipment, flex a nascent muscle and try to alleviate concerns it supports. military in Ukraine dangerously weakened defense capabilities elsewhere in Europe.
But the more strategic question of whether to grant candidate status to Ukraine later this month is also an urgent issue for the country’s European allies.
During a visit to Kyiv on Saturday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said her administration would give an opinion on whether the European Union should grant candidate status to Ukraine by the end of the week. However, the decision is ultimately a policy that EU leaders will be called upon to take at their summit on 23 and 24 June in Brussels.
After gaining candidate status, most countries need at least a decade of reforms and negotiations to become full members of the EU. If Ukraine gets the green light later this month, the road ahead is likely to be long and difficult given its dire situation and problems with corruption and the pre-war government.
It would still send a powerful message, experts say.
“Whatever the territorial reality on the ground, having this deeper perspective of Euro-Atlantic integration for Ukraine is very significant,” he said. Lesser. “And, as it fosters a growing prospect of an increasingly Westernized Ukraine versus a Russia that has become an Asian imperial stance, the political contrast between these two actors will become more pronounced.”
– Morning Stevis-Gridneff