Emmanuel Macron likes to challenge historical precedents. In 2017, he disrupted the French political landscape by winning the presidency and overturning the country’s traditional left-right division. In April this year, he became the first French head of state to win re-election for two decades. And now he has again countered the trend, though not in a way he will like: after Sunday’s election, Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble, lost its parliamentary majority, a very unusual fact for a president in the history of the Fifth Republic.
Ensemble won 246 seats, 43 less than needed for the majority. The consensus of the main French electoral organizations had been that Macron’s alliance would win between 255 and 295 of the 577 seats in the assembly. As a result, Ensemble’s performance fell short of expectations.
This means that France now faces the prospect of weeks of messy negotiations to form a new coalition or minority government. There is even the possibility of a parliament permanently “hung” or blocked, without a clear majority for any likely combination of forces in the new national assembly.
Ahead of Sunday’s election, high-ranking government sources were confident that Macron could rule without problems if only 20 seats were left to get a majority. But they were very concerned that more than 20 seats could put the Macron government in an area of permanent turmoil, haggling and possibly stagnation. Senior French sources now argue that what the Elysée fears most is an obstructive parliament or doing nothing at a time when rapid reactions to rapid economic and international crises are needed.
Macron will try to form a permanent or ad hoc coalition with the center-right, Les Républicains, which did better than expected, winning 64 seats, and could put the centrist alliance above the 289 seats needed for a global majority. But that would mean that the president would be under pressure to move his government to the right, even though Macron was supposed to turn a little to the left in his second term, after winning the presidency. in April with the support of left-wing voters. The risk is that his new government will not be able to establish a coherent line. Macron may also be forced to appoint a new prime minister.
The incumbent, Élisabeth Borne, in office for just one month, won her own election in Normandy. But now it can be considered too left-wing and too inexperienced to hold together a Macron and center-right coalition: top center-right politicians have already begun to demand his departure. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who himself comes from the center-right, has called on his former colleagues to “form a coalition” around Macron for stability and would be one of the leading candidates for the post. Minister and Borne. they were forced out.
The first focus will be the crucial confidence motion in the new government in the assembly later this month. Unless the center-right Les Républicains votes with Macron or abstains, the president will not have enough deputies to win the vote, forcing Borne, France’s second female prime minister, to step down.
The center-right Republicans are deeply divided as a party, between pro-Macron-compatible “moderate Macron” MEPs and the radical, nationalist wing. So while Macron may be persuading some center-right MPs to support him for the next five years, it is likely that not all of them will. This is because the direction of Les Républicains itself is about to change, which will probably move the party further to the right. In addition, the party’s hopes of uniting and rebuilding its strength to pose a serious presidential challenge in 2027 could be jeopardized if it associates too much with Macron.
Therefore, long and tortuous negotiations seem inevitable. But it is unlikely that the inexperienced president and prime minister will be able to count on Republicans en bloc. Instead, they will wait to elect a handful of moderate and center-right MPs, as well as one or two independents. Whatever happens, the new assembly will be full of far-right and radical left deputies, deeply hostile to Macron, just two months after his re-election.
Yesterday there was an unexpected breakthrough for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which won 89 seats. This is by far the largest far-right group in any French parliament since World War II.
The green-left alliance, Nupes, while failing to achieve its ambition to win a majority and force Macron to nominate a left-wing prime minister, will still form the largest opposition bloc with 142 seats. . While some left-wing leaders suggested that Macron should bow to the “people’s judgment,” work with them, and move his government abruptly to the left, this seems unlikely.
What is likely is the prospect of a period of prolonged political instability, as the war wreaks havoc in Ukraine and there is a growing threat of an economic recession at home. Macron had called on French voters to avoid adding “domestic uncertainty to international uncertainty.” They decided instead to punish the newly re-elected president for a lax and aimless campaign, and for the government’s alleged lack of a clear plan to fight rising inflation.
Gone are the days of a Macron “like Jupiter” capable of imposing its will by a docile parliamentary majority. Macron will have to learn to negotiate and commit, none of which will be easy for him.