Six million households could suffer blackouts this winter due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ministers have warned.
The Times reports that Whitehall officials have drawn up a “reasonable” scenario for the worst-case scenario that warns of widespread gas shortages if the Kremlin cuts more supplies to Europe.
A minister told the newspaper that electricity could be rationed for up to six million households during morning and night peaks for more than a month.
It is understood that the scenario raises fears that imports of Norwegian gas, on which the United Kingdom depends, will be reduced by more than half due to rising demand on the continent.
The model assumes that the UK would stop receiving gas through the “interconnectors” of the Netherlands and Belgium.
The shortage would require the government to implement emergency plans, such as shutting down gas-fired power plants and telling heavy industrial users to stop burning gas.
The closure of the plants would precipitate a shortage of electricity, which means the government would have to ration supplies, probably during peak weekdays between 7am and 10am and 4pm and 9pm.
Gas supplies to homes would not be affected, according to The Times.
Whitehall is understood to have formulated an even tougher plan if Vladimir Putin cut off all gas supplies to the EU, which would mean power outages could begin in December and last three months, including weekends.
A Whitehall source told The Times: “As a responsible government, it is right that we plan every extreme scenario, even if it is unlikely. Britain is well prepared for any supply disruption.
“Unlike EU countries, our North Sea gas reserves are being pumped to the limit, Norwegian platforms are directly connected to the UK and we have the second largest LNG import infrastructure in Europe. while Germany has none. Given the EU’s historic dependence on Putin’s gas, the winter could be very harsh for the continent’s countries. “
Kwasi Kwarteng last month wrote to the owners of the remaining coal-fired power plants in the UK asking them to stay open longer than expected. The remaining three plants were due to close in September under emission reduction plans.
The business secretary has instructed the National Grid power system operator to work with the industry to ensure that additional non-gas-fired generation capacity is available.
Gas is currently used to cover more than 35% of the country’s electricity demand. The United Kingdom normally buys less than 4% of its gas directly from Russia, but is connected to European markets that are heavily dependent on Kremlin fossil fuels.
The EU gets 40% of its gas from Russia, but is trying to reduce its dependence. Russia, meanwhile, has cut off supplies to Poland, Bulgaria and Finland since the start of the war, and there is concern that it could go further.