Conservative MPs warn in private that a group of cabinet ministers and other high-profile Conservatives are on the verge of losing their seats in the next general election under Boris Johnson.
Those at risk in the south of England include Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, Cabinet Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg, and former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt. Deputies in London whose seats are at risk include former cabinet ministers Iain Duncan Smith and Theresa Villiers.
Johnson himself would be on the verge of losing to Labor in Uxbridge, although pollsters often warn that incumbent prime ministers enjoy some ballot. Others at risk of losing their seats include key critics of the Prime Minister, Steve Baker and William Wragg.
Polls suggest the Conservative vote holds better in the north-east of England and the east of the Midlands than in the south, as evidenced by local election results.
At least one senior MP has privately warned his colleagues that dislike of Johnson is creating a perfect storm for the party in which he could lose large majorities in the south of England and smaller advantages in the north of England, because less voters in the north need to turn against the Conservatives in order to lose the seat.
The MP said there was a widespread view in the party that he could not win an election under Johnson’s leadership after the by-elections in Wakefield, Tiverton and Honiton.
The warnings came as Labor sources downplayed the possibility of Conservatives’ desertions in areas of the “red wall”, stressing that the party believed it was on the verge of reclaiming many of those seats.
A high-ranking Conservative in a seat at risk said voters in the southern Liberal seats were being won more successfully by Labor leader Keir Starmer than traditional voters. They said those voters were content to vote Labor or Lib Dem to overthrow a Conservative incumbent.
“Starmer is definitely appealing to my voters, no doubt about it,” they said.
Johnson has insisted that the issue of his leadership is “resolved” after winning a censure vote on his leadership, even though most of his leaders voted against it. He has said he intends to fight for two more elections.
“At the moment I’m actively thinking about the third term and what could happen then, but I’ll review it when I get there,” he told reporters over the weekend.
Johnson is safe from a vote of confidence for at least a year under current party rules, which are determined by the 1922 Executive Committee. However, some of his underlying critics are seeking election to the committee in a few weeks. , including Baker.
Deputies said they believed there were other flash points that could lead to a change in the rules to force another contest. Most likely it is the report from the MPs ’privileges committee, which is investigating whether Johnson deceived parliament over breaches of the Downing Street blockade.
Baker also said the party would have to move if Johnson tried to call elections before the privileges committee returned its verdict.
Other possible moments of crisis include another potential loss of by-elections in Somerton and Frome, where MP David Warburton is suspended after allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use were published. The seat has a large Conservative majority, but was previously occupied by the Lib Dems.
Several of Johnson’s critics, including former cabinet minister Damian Green, have urged the cabinet to step in and tell Johnson he cannot win an election.
On Tuesday, Pauline Latham, the Mid Derbyshire MP who had previously served on the committee’s executive, told BBC Radio Derby that the cabinet should move against the prime minister.
Latham, who voted against Johnson in the confidence vote, said: “The problem is that a lot of them think they can keep their job for a long time and they don’t want to. [depose the prime minister] but really, which is more important, the country or the party or your job? We need the cabinet to move. “
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Latham said the recent resignation of party chairman Oliver Dowden was seen as a pure reaction to the defeats in the by-elections. “If another cabinet minister leaves, I think we’ll see a few, but it looks like they’re staying together, and I think it’s because they want to keep their jobs.”
Big beasts at risk
Boris Johnson – Uxbridge and South Ruislip Majority: 7,210 Johnson is on the verge of losing his seat to Labor, according to the latest YouGov MRP poll, although incumbent prime ministers often benefit from slightly skewed results in their favor .
Dominic Raab – Esher and Walton Majority: 2,743 Liberal Democrats have long pointed to the seat of Deputy Prime Minister and current polling trends suggest they would occupy the galloping seat.
Jeremy Hunt – South West SurreyMajority: 8,817 Hunt has been the target of “progressive alliance” activists, including an independent NHS activist when he was health secretary. Most will look appetizing to Lib Dems.
Steve Baker – Wycombe Majority: 4,214 Workers have been steadily winning in the seat, where demographics are moving in favor of the party.
Jacob Rees-Mogg – Northeastern Somerset Majority 14,729 A harsh call for progressive alliance: Labor are the main challenger and took the mayoralty of the West of England, but the Liberal Democrats recently took the council and the vote last time were divided almost equally between the parties. Most have been lower in the past, but increased in 2019.