1
Selection: SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma) (slot value $ 8,842,200)
Among his time as director of exploration for the Astros and GM of the Orioles, Mike Elias has been selected eight times in the top five in the last 10 drafts, including four No. 1 picks (2012, 2013, 2014, 2019). Despite this, Elias and Orioles are very difficult to determine. Sometimes he takes the best available consensus player (like Adley Rutschman in 2019) and sometimes opts for the portfolio approach (like with Colton Cowser in 2021). So your guess is as good as mine. This selection is almost not in stone.
Baltimore has been rumored to have reduced its No. 1 pick to five players: Holliday (Matt’s son), Cal Poly Brooks Lee’s shortstop, LSU hitter Jacob Berry and high schoolers Druw Jones (son of Andruw) and Elijah Green. With such an open field, the portfolio approach seems likely, and Holliday is a decent bet to accept a deal below the slot because it could drop to 7 or 8 if it doesn’t reach number 1. For him, a agreement below space at number 1 will be more lucrative than an agreement at number 7 or 8 (not that money would change the life of the Holliday family anyway), plus say it was the number one choice 1. Holliday is.
2
Choose: OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS (Georgia) (slot value $ 8,185,100)
The Diamondbacks are on the rise in the first round and Jones is now the No. 1 prospect in the draft class consensus. Arizona will jump on Jones if the Orioles pass.
If U takes Jones, Arizona will likely pivot toward Elijah Green or Termarr Johnson High School second baseman, either of whom would satisfy his desire to increase significantly. There is very little chance that Jones will remain on the board after this selection.
3
Choose: OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy (Florida) ($ 7,587,600 slot value)
Rumor has it that the Rangers want Druw Jones to fall here, but a) this is very unlikely and b) it doesn’t happen in our simulated draft. Green has a similar advantage and was considered the best prospect for spring, so it’s the next best. If Green, Jones and Jackson Holliday enter the top three elections as they do in our mock draft, it would be the first time the top three picks have been high school students since 2017 (Royce Lewis, Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore).
4
Selection: SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly (slot value $ 7,002,100)
GM Ben Cherington had two picks in the top 10 in his first two drafts with the Pirates and used them with college batsmen (Nick Gonzales in 2020 and Henry Davis in 2021). He could also be three consecutive college batsmen in the top 10. Lee may not take long on the short stop, but he is a batsman with a great bat-to-ball skill, a skill with greater value in the era of high punches / high displacements. .
5
Choose: C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech ($ 6,494,300 slot value)
Parada and the Nationals have been a constant connection in recent weeks. The Yellow Jackets backstop had almost as many homers (26) as they put in (32) this spring, and their work behind the plate has improved. Washington is more likely to go with Brooks Lee for one of the high school bats if they are on the board here.
6
Choose: 2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS (Georgia) (slot value $ 6,034,300)
The case may be that Johnson is the best pure hitter in the 2022 draft class. The Marlins are said to be among the best high school bats (Johnson, Elijah Green, Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones) rather than the best college bats ( Brooks Lee, Kevin Parada), and Johnson are the only ones of these players still available in our simulated draft, so they’re going to Miami. It bears some resemblance to Kahlil Watson, a possible 5-10 pick last year who fell to the Marlins at number 16.
7
Choose: 3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (Florida) ($ 5,708,000 slot value)
The Cubs have been connected with Collier, the son of former league player Lou Collier, more than any other team this spring. It’s a fascinating prospect: Collier earned his GED and finished high school early, and he baptized .333 / .419 / .537 with eight homers in 52 games when he was 17 in college this spring. and one of the youngest players in the draft class. Teams that rely on analytical models estimate Collier’s ability and performance in relation to age and competition.
8
Selection: SS Zach Neto, Campbell (slot value $ 5,439,500)
The Twins are a model-driven club (they are said to be at a great time in Cam Collier, which is not available in our simulated draft) and Neto is a beloved model thanks to their excellent contact rates and high speeds. output. The right-back hit a .407 / .514 / .769 line with 15 homers, 19 steals in 20 attempts, 39 baseballs and just 19 strikeouts this spring. Whether it’s the Twins or another team, Neto is a block to become the first pick in the first round in Campbell’s history.
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