Okay, that’s it. Here are the teams that will be competing for spots in October and then fighting for World Series supremacy. The MLB trade deadline gave the baseball deck a thorough shuffle, but now teams will have to play their hands as they are. So, with the deals in the rearview mirror and the stretch ahead, who has the best team going forward?
It’s time to reset our understanding and gauge who has the best roster to win over the next two (or three) months.
We’ve spent much of the season so far looking mad at the Yankees’ ridiculous record, but sure enough, the Dodgers have pulled through. Both entered Thursday with the best record in baseball, period, and are expected to finish with it using the FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus projection systems.
With the Padres’ huge trade deadline, the Braves’ perpetual winning streak, and the Mets’ overall hot streak, the Dodgers will certainly have competition in October. The top line on their depth chart, you know, the one that includes Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman, is as strong as anyone’s, but admittedly tighter competition than it was a week ago.
What sets the Dodgers apart, as always, is the quality depth of the starting lineup. Suddenly, that includes Joey Gallo’s bounce-back project, as well as up-and-coming youngsters like Miguel Vargas.
You can never be sure a team will win a World Series, but the Dodgers in the hunt is becoming a certainty.
3. New York Yankees
Remember, we are looking forward, not back. The Astros have a slightly worse record than the Yankees right now, but they have a more complete and well-stocked team heading into October. And really, that’s where this matchup is headed.
Veterans of five consecutive ALCS appearances, Houston boasts the best starting pitching depth in the league. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier make up the rotation right now, but GM James Click and manager Dusty Baker will soon have the unenviable task of deciding what to do with an extra arm or two when Lance McCullers Jr . back from injury
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The Yankees have Aaron Judge, which is a pretty huge deal. And they have legitimately found excellent collaborators in Nestor Cortes, Jose Trevino and several others. The blow that could cost them against the Astros, or anyone else, is the uncertainty behind their rotation. Jordan Montgomery’s trade means they’ll have to cross their fingers that Luis Severino returns in time and that his otherwise injury-riddled luck continues.
New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom throws during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park, Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
4. New York Mets
5. San Diego Parents
6. Atlanta Braves
Did the Padres make up ground by adding Juan Soto and Josh Bell (plus Josh Hader and Brandon Drury in separate deals)? Well, of course they did. They won’t actually catch the Dodgers in the NL West, who are a dozen games ahead. But they may be on the hook for a playoff series or a delicious three-game set coming up this weekend.
If you ask FanGraphs’ rest-of-season projections, the Padres have gotten into a virtual tie for the rest of the season with the Dodgers … and the Mets and Braves. The NL East titans are in a closer race, and however that turns out, both figure to have something to say about the NL pennant. The Braves did more at the deadline to boost their chances, but the Mets’ final lead still comes down to the health of one Jacob deGrom. If he can stay on the field and pitch alongside Max Scherzer, the Mets have the best starting pitching on the planet.
An X factor to watch out for though? Mustachioed rookie Spencer Strider has a 3.02 ERA since joining the rotation in May, and has allowed one run or less in eight of his 13 starts while hitting the world. Braves management said he is not on any kind of innings cap. He’s lined up to face deGrom, one of the only starters who throws harder than him, on Sunday at Citi Field.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Milwaukee Brewers
All of these teams are waiting for things that should happen, but might not, in order to reach their ultimate form. The Blue Jays need more from Bo Bichette and Jose Berrios. The Phillies need Bryce Harper back and their deadline additions to stabilize the black holes. The Brewers need Freddy Peralta to return and the lineup to pick it up a bit.
All of these teams are capable of rolling through October, in large part due to dominant starting pitching, if they get their groove on.
10. Seattle Mariners
11. Minnesota Twins
These AL contenders can smell the playoffs and they added pitching to help. The Mariners won’t win their division, as the Twins likely will, but they could have the highest ceiling come October. The addition of Luis Castillo turns their young duo of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby from “nervous Game 2 options” to “exciting Game 3 options.”
12. Tampa Bay Rays
13. Saint Louis Cardinals
According to PECOTA’s estimate, these teams work with a coin-op chance to make the playoffs. You’d be hard-pressed to say they made big moves at the deadline. The Cardinals made smart, if stealthy, additions to their pitching staff in Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, while the Rays added a characteristically interesting on-the-fly development project in center fielder Jose Siri.
Do we think both will find their way into October anyway? Of course we do.
14. San Francisco Giants
15. Chicago White Sox
16. Boston Red Sox
17. Guardians of Cleveland
If there’s a team on the fringes that can make a run and shake things up, it’s probably in this group. But if you feel strongly about one of them, well, apparently you have more confidence than any of their offices.
Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman plays during a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, July 29, 2022, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)
18. Baltimore Orioles
19. Miami Marlins
I don’t think the Orioles will have a Miracle on Grass playoff run, but they don’t have to in order to count this season as a resounding victory. Top pick-turned-rookie catcher Adley Ruschman looks like the real deal: He’s hitting .252/.353/.446, looking like a balanced leader and knocking on the door of the game’s elite catchers club with less than 60 games in his major league career.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
21. Chicago Cubs
22. Los Angeles Angels
23. Texas Rangers
We have reached the rudderless part of the classification. None of these teams are going anywhere this season, and two of them just seriously compromised their chances of going anywhere soon with confusing trade deadlines, so the Diamondbacks get the top spot for having a very promising farm system .
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
25. Kansas City Royals
26. Detroit Tigers
27. Cincinnati Reds
28. Colorado Rockies
29. A of Oakland
30. Washington Nationals
Look, if you’re going to see a bad team the rest of the season, may I recommend the Pirates? Oneil Cruz, a circus mirror of Aaron Judge who plays shortstop, still has his sea legs in the majors. He strikes out too much, doesn’t walk enough, etc. But start swinging it. Since the All-Star break, he’s hitting .257 with four home runs, each of which is a threat to land in a laugh-inducing spot you didn’t think possible.