This photo from the brochure, taken in 2004 and received on May 23, 2022 from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German federal government agency and the research institute responsible for disease control and prevention, shows an electron microscopic capture of ultrafine section of the monkeypox. virus. [Photo/Agencies]
PARIS – Although it is still too early to talk about an epidemic of smallpox, despite the increase in cases reported recently, the appearance of the phenomenon should act as an alert, according to Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva.
Q: Cases are on the rise in North America and Europe: Can it be called an epidemic?
A: We are seeing the emergence of an unusual phenomenon, but it is still difficult to know if it will erupt in an epidemic or if its spread will be more contained. In recent days, the number of cases has doubled every three or four days, which could indicate the exponential growth of an epidemic wave.
However, it is also questionable whether the recent media coverage of the phenomenon has encouraged patients to consult their doctor, and their doctor to talk more about the diagnosis and report detected cases. So it’s still a little early to talk about an epidemic, but the onset of an epidemic would really look like what we’re seeing right now.
Q: Is the spread of the disease surprising and worrisome?
A: The emergence of this phenomenon, which is new outside of equatorial Africa, should alert us and make us very cautious. It would be much more effective from a health point of view, and much less impactful in social and economic terms, to isolate for three weeks the few cases detected today and demand quarantine for highly suspicious contacts.
Indeed, we can currently try to dismantle all the transmission chains because we only have a few cases, instead of waiting to be overwhelmed by a possible influx of cases of which we have little knowledge, few treatments or vaccines available.
We must always remember that an epidemic progression of contamination follows an exponential law that can be very fast. For now, what we know about the monkeypox virus does not lead us to fear the massive contamination of the general population. Unless the virus has evolved significantly, both in its transmissibility and in its modes of transmission, this virus is known to be poorly transmissible.
We know, after 50 years of experience in Africa, that this virus requires strong interpersonal promiscuity with someone contagious for contamination to occur.
Q: Is there a risk, as with Covid, that it will become a global pandemic?
A: We cannot rule out any scenario at this stage. And the pandemic scenario cannot be completely ruled out.
That said, there are other less pessimistic scenarios, which are at least as plausible as the scenarios. So far, no chain infection of more than six people has been reported. The reproduction rate in Africa has always been below 1, that is. without pandemic potential.
The conditions for human-to-human transmission can occur, thanks to greater adaptation of the virus, but also to mobility and the networks of human communities that live nearby.
The HIV / AIDS pandemic also began with the contamination of certain segments of society, in particular male homosexual communities and people who exchange needles.
We then saw that the pandemic spread to other population groups, blood transfusion patients, sex workers and then heterosexual couples and babies of infected mothers.
At present, however, there is no evidence that the monkeypox virus is sexually transmitted. It seems to be transmitted more by close and prolonged contact with an infected person who has blisters on the skin.
In this case, there is no reason to limit it to the male homosexual community. Other groups in the population, especially children and heterosexual couples, could be affected.
Agencies