Coal-fired power stations could be paid to generate more electricity, and consumers and businesses will pay to use less, as Britain braces for a winter of gas shortages in Europe caused by the showdown with Russia over war in Ukraine
In its first forecast outlook for the UK’s ability to keep the lights on over winter, National Grid admitted there could be “tight periods” in early December, prompting a call on power stations electricity to increase generation.
While the grid hopes to be able to maintain the buffer that prevents blackouts, it issued a warning about the potential impact of a shortfall in Russian gas supplies to Europe.
It came as Moscow cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, pushing up wholesale gas prices and prompting predictions that household energy bills could reach £3,850 next year and remain above £3,500 in 2024.
The UK is far less dependent on Russian gas than European countries such as Germany, but National Grid said shortages across Europe were likely to lead to “very high” prices for the gas that heats homes on cold days and generates electricity .
To prepare for turbulence in energy markets, it has called for five coal-fired power units to be available to supply power to the grid, but not to the wider electricity market. He said EDF and Drax, which own four of the five, have already agreed to do so, but did not disclose the fifth.
The deal follows government negotiations with French state energy company EDF over its West Burton A plant in Nottinghamshire, as well as with Drax over its Yorkshire plant.
National Grid is also looking at how to reduce demand, which could involve paying industrial users to reduce their energy use.
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It could also trigger a scheme tested earlier this year under which customers of household energy supplier Octopus Energy would be paid to postpone using the dishwasher or delay a laundry cycle until after peak demand hours.
In addition, the electricity system operator will collaborate with the owners of the transmission networks to reduce maintenance outages, or schedule them to cause fewer outages.
Jess Ralston, senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank, said: “We may get through the winter without major incidents, but the gas bill in the end is likely to be exorbitant.
“With calls for the £15bn winter energy package [to support domestic billpayers] to expand, the government will be kicking itself for not investing more in energy efficiency over the years.
“The high cost of gas will add £2,000 to bills from October, but this could rise with Putin already cutting the flow to Germany.”