The 2022 NBA Draft has finally arrived. Join us as NBA Draft analyst Sam Vecenie and front office expert John Hollinger judge each election as it happens. There will be instant analysis, screenings and live reactions to the 58 elections, as well as any key operations that occur with them.
We started with a surprise at the head of the draft, as the Orlando Magic selected Duke’s Paolo Banchero with No. 1 pick instead of Jabari Smith Jr. of Auburn, who had been favored to go first throughout the pre-draft process. Chet Holmgren finished second to the Oklahoma City Thunder as expected, while Smith fell to the Houston Rockets at No. 3.
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1. Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero | 6 feet-10, forward | 19 years old, first year | duc
Vecenie ranking: 3.
How you value Banchero depends entirely on how much you value the offensive aspect above all. If you want someone who has a chance to take an offense, Banchero should be the number 1 man on your board. If the shooting occurs, and I think so, his game translates well as the main offensive creator and as option number 2. He’s a sharp pin, a very fluid shooter with the best bag of tricks in the class and it possesses at least enough tact to reasonably project it as an excellent perimeter shooter. It’s a real nightmare of mismatch and will likely continue to be effective in this regard at the NBA level. Can you defend yourself in space well enough to avoid being targeted by mismatches at this extreme? Right now, I think he would be attacked on defense because of his poor closures and his movement in space (and by a faulty effort). But it has the potential to reach a level where this does not happen given its size, strength and intelligence.
Hollinger’s team’s fit: an absolute surprise as it turned out, as the Magic managed to keep their intentions secret almost to the end. I had Second Banker on my board behind Jabari Smith, Jr., but I had them both on the same level. This will shake many of the expectations of what will happen with the next election as well, especially with Houston’s election at No. 3.
Hollinger would have chosen … Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren | 7 feet, center | 20 years, first year | Gonzaga
Vecenie ranking: 1.
The word “unique” is overused in Scouting circles, but Holmgren is that. There has never been a prospect like this to get into the draft. He is so skillful, but also so thin. It’s one of the best defenses I’ve ever valued when I was a teenager. His positioning is already elite, and he has all the defensive tools based on length at 7 feet with a wingspan of 7-6. His expectation and instincts are crazy. Beyond that, it’s really tough and competitive. Offensively, he has all the skills. He can shoot, he can dribble in open spaces and he’s a good passer. But does athletics have or explode to separate from opponents? It all comes down to functionality. Can the Holmgren framework function functionally at the NBA level? Will it allow you to show this skill set that is more complete than any other player in this class? If Holmgren had Evan Mobley’s strength at 215 pounds, he would be the No. 1 general prospect, even with some of the questions I have about him as a shooter.
Hollinger’s team in form: this goes as expected despite the surprise at number 1. Holmgren will fill a gap for the Thunder in the middle and give them an elite throwing blocker to anchor the defense. Now the Thunder’s quest is to find some people who can shoot and score. The Thunder has 12 and 34 selections and multiple future options to use in exchanges. They probably just started here.
Hollinger would have chosen … Smith.
3. Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr. | 6 feet-10, forward | 19 years old, first year | Auburn
Vecenie ranking: 2.
Where you rank Smith compared to the other two main consensus prospects (Holmgren, Bancheron) is a figure of how you see basketball in the modern era. I don’t see Smith as a team’s top ball manager, but I do see him as a scorer of over 20 points per game who is efficient, effective and also plays an excellent, changeable and versatile defense. Elite shooting and strong defense are two of the best assets for a teenage NBA player. It makes it a flawless perspective in many ways. I think he has a real advantage as a shooter, depending on how much explosiveness, athleticism and strength he can add. Because he is a positive player on both ends, he is the type of prospect who can affect victory at an exceptionally high level, either as an option number 1 or 2. All teams are looking for big, changeable defenders with shooting ability and potential to create shots.
Hollinger’s team in shape: the Rockets get my best player with the third pick, and also a great fit for their current roster. Smith is projected as a drop shooter who can space the ground around Jalen Green’s units and a large, changeable defender who can cover some of the team’s other shortcomings at that end. Image of Houston native Rashard Lewis, but with more defensive cuts. Houston still has 17 and 26 picks in the first round, so expect to hear more from these guys.
Hollinger would have chosen … Smith.
4. Sacramento Kings
Keegan Murray | 6 feet-8, forward | 21 years old, second year student | Iowa
Vecenie ranking: 8.
I think Murray becomes a shocking and probably top-quality NBA player who puts numbers as a scorer. He will shoot down shots, attack the locks, and take advantage of any leverage-based mismatches he gets. Tobias Harris is the current NBA player I see the most when I see Murray. It’s at its best when it comes to keeping things simple, no frills. Murray will push the ball in transition, grab and shoot, someday make a bucket created by the middle of the stick and hit the opposing guards in the post mismatches. I also buy him as a shooter all over the court in a variety of situations, which means coaches will be able to move him. Ultimately, its value will be reduced to whether it can be an exchange rate on defense that can at least hold up to the point of attack, even if it is not a blocking impediment.
Hollinger’s team in shape: another surprise in the top 4! The consensus choice here was Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, but the Kings went with Murray’s best fit. The Kings only had one real striker on the roster and Murray’s simple task will help them in the short term, especially if new coach Mike Brown uses a system similar to Golden State. But this is a big unexpected for Detroit right behind them, who I hope will take over Ivey at 5 years old.
Hollinger would have chosen … Garden Ivey.
5. Detroit Pistons
Garden Ivey | 6 feet-4, base | 20 years old, second year student | Purdue
Vecenie ranking: 4.
Assessing Ivey’s professional future is about how much you value athletic traits and how much you believe teams can solve some of the problems. There is no guard in this class with a higher ceiling if everything is put together. His ability to go down with power, strength and speed is a skill that can be translated immediately. It can be separated from almost any defender. But the difference between him and, for example, a player like Ja Morant is what happens next. While Morant is natural as a passer and game creator, in addition to his vertical pop as a finalist, Ivey doesn’t have that natural feeling right now and makes too many negative value plays for it. She will walk away from her man and collapse the defense, but she should be able to make the right decision after that happens. If things go well, he could easily become a 25-point guy and six assists. But his ground is something like Eric Bledsoe without the elite defense.
Hollinger team fit: The Pistons aim for the best pure perimeter perspective of the draft despite landing only fifth in the lottery. Ivey has booming potential, but his speed in taking off when dribbling should be a good complement to Cade Cunningham’s more nuanced approach. Between this selection and an excess of space, the reconstruction of Detroit seems ready to move to a more fruitful phase.
Hollinger would have chosen … Ivey.
6. Indiana Pacers
Bennedict Mathurin | 6 feet-6, ala | 20 years old, second year student | Arizona
Vecenie ranking: 5.
There is a high floor for Mathurin due to his natural shooting ability. It will knock the jumpers out of the catch, and it will do so with real movement, which means it can generate 3 open on its own with or without the ball. On top of that, he’s a constant pullup shooter who has advanced as a creator and game creator. It’s hard to see how he fails in attack. Defensively, there are questions about Mathurin’s lack of foundations, but he has enough tools to move forward in the coming years with the right level of investment. Ultimately, the reason it has been ranked so high is its advantage. I think teams, over time, will be able to use it in second team actions if they can learn to control the ball with respect to their handle. There is a world where you can be a solid number 3 option offensively on a good team, with a bit of an advantage beyond that.
Hollinger’s team in shape: no surprises here. Indiana could return to that draft relatively quickly if rumors of deals involving Malcolm Brogdon or Myles Turner come to fruition. Either way, the Pacers needed a lot of an early-caliber young wing as they continued to rebuild around base Tyrese Haliburton, and Mathurin was the best consensus player on the board.
Hollinger would have chosen … matured
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Shaedon Sharpe | 6 feet-5, ala | 19 years old | Kentucky (did not play)
Vecenie ranking: 9.
Questions with Sharpe obviously abound. He is a creator of monster shots with fantastic athleticism. It ends on the edge and drives the transition game. He has also never been asked to be a game creator for others, and there are real …