New Brunswick has the second highest COVID-19 risk index in Canada after Newfoundland and Labrador, according to COVID-19 Resources Canada. (COVID-19 Resources Canada – image credit)
New Brunswick’s COVID-19 hazard index score is “high” right now, with approximately 1,700 people first infected with Omicron each day, according to COVID-19 Resources Canada, an Agency-funded research group of Public Health of Canada. .
That’s 213 infections per 100,000 New Brunswickers, as of July 9, nearly 2.5 times the national average of 87, says Tara Moriarty, co-founder of the group.
The number of infections is likely to be even higher when reinfections are included, said Moriarty, an associate professor and researcher on infectious diseases at the University of Toronto.
“You can probably add 30 percent more,” he said, or 510 infections, raising the estimated provincial daily total to 2,210.
The hazard index is calculated from four equally weighted categories: vaccine protection, current infections and spread, impact on the health system, and mortality.
The New Brunswick index is 2.95, the second highest in the country after Newfoundland and Labrador, with 2.98.
Canada’s danger level is listed as “high” at 2.04.
Nova Scotia is the only other province with a “high” score of 2.71. All other provinces are listed as “high,” except Alberta, which is currently rated “moderate,” though Moriarty suspects it will soon change after the stampede.
“I’m very concerned that in Canada, including New Brunswick, we’re waiting to find out what’s going to happen here until we’re really experiencing it instead of looking at other countries and saying, you know, we have to tell people,‘ Do your extra shot, put on your mask, the danger is high right now, if you’re in New Brunswick, ”he said.
“I think people have to understand that in order to make good decisions. And I think if someone or a family member gets really sick right now because they thought everything was fine and no, there’s going to be a lot of anger, a loss of confidence in the institutions.
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“And I think governments that don’t publish that information are walking a tightrope right now in terms of accountability and accountability.”
Wave update Tuesday
Department of Health officials did not respond to a request for comment on the New Brunswick index rating or Moriarty’s concerns.
But Tuesday’s COVIDWatch weekly report will include an update on whether New Brunswick is now in a new wave of pandemic, spokeswoman Michaela Power confirmed.
Last Friday, the head of the New Brunswick Medical Society urged those who are eligible to receive their fourth dose of a vaccine against COVID-19, citing what he believes is the start of a new wave.
“The wave, unfortunately, seems to be starting. We are seeing an increase in the numbers,” said President Mark MacMillan.
Last Tuesday, Dr. Jennifer Russell, the province’s medical director of health, said officials were awaiting a possible new wave after four more deaths from COVID, an increase in hospitalizations due to the virus and nearly double of new cases reported with respect to the previous one. week.
“That’s what it looks like, but we’re still analyzing the data,” he said, noting that BC and Ottawa recently announced they are experiencing new waves.
“I think over the next week we will be able to determine here if that is the case.”
Decreased protection among people at higher risk
After a period of gradual improvement in New Brunswick, Moriarty said, COVID’s situation has worsened again, this time with the Omicron BA.5 subvariant.
“We are seeing increases in a number of different indicators that suggest New Brunswick is likely to enter a wave or BA.5 wave.”
Hospitalizations are among those indicators, he said.
According to the estimated number of new infections, Moriarty predicts that New Brunswick will have about 17 new hospitalizations per day in a couple of weeks and a new admission to intensive care per day.
“I think a lot of the new infections we see now in the BA.5 wave are probably older people vaccine protection has decreased,” and they have a higher risk of suffering serious outcomes, he said.
“And I’m actually very worried right now about the number of serious results we can see.”
Presented by Tara Moriarty
Moriarty urges those who are eligible for their third or fourth dose of a COVID-19 vaccine to receive them as soon as possible.
He also states that eligibility for second reinforcements should be extended to younger age groups.
“We know from data from the UK and elsewhere that vaccine protection is declining and with BA.5 there is concern that it may be even more evasive of immunity from previous infections and vaccines.”
In addition, with BA.5, there has been more admissions to the ICU, according to Moriarty, and “generally younger people. People over the age of 75 rarely end up in the ICU because they are unlikely to survive. “, he said.
A total of 52.8 per cent of eligible New Brunswick residents have received a third dose, as of last Tuesday, and 21.7 per cent of New Brunswick residents aged 50 and over have received a fourth dose on Thursday. past, according to the Department of Health.
Evan Mitsui / CBC
About 130 New Brunswick infections a day will result in symptoms lasting more than four weeks, starting July 9, Moriarty said.
Since December 2, 2021, some 36,000 Omicron infections in New Brunswick have caused symptoms that have lasted more than four weeks, according to data.
Even more troubling, he said, about 24,000 of the symptoms involved “limit the activities of daily living.”
Second highest Omicron mortality rate
Moriarty estimates that 488 New Brunswickers have died from infections estimated by Omicron so far.
That’s 62 per 100,000, which puts the province tied for first place with Saskatchewan for the highest mortality rate. The national rate is 55 per 100,000.
The province has reported 290 deaths from COVID during the Omicron period, a difference of 198, Moriarty said.
“It suggests that in New Brunswick, like many other Canadian provinces, there are still some deaths that were expected to have been reported during the election wave.”
Last month, Russell told CBC that a review of all death certificates was being done and that the number of COVID-related deaths could change.
The estimated total deaths from Omicron are nearly 12 times the average flu deaths in New Brunswick over the same period, Moriarty said. The national average is 10.5, according to figures.
54% of the infected population so far
Nearly 54 percent of the province’s population has been infected with Omicron at least once, as of July 9, according to Moriarty.
The national average is 49 percent.
Still, Moriarty believes it is possible to get over the next wave without everyone being exposed to an Omicron infection.
COVID-19 Resources Canada
He noted that most Canadians over the age of 40 have managed to avoid becoming infected so far by getting the third and fourth doses. Across Canada, about 59 per cent of those infected at least once have been under the age of 40 and about 36 per cent have been over the age of 40.
He also cited masking and other protective measures, such as distancing.
“I know everyone is tired, but it’s really worth trying not to get infected,” he said.
“What a lot of people have done has worked. And you don’t want to give up or stop trying because it’s important.”
$ 99 million in hospital expenses
It is also important to take steps to curb the virus to protect the healthcare system, Moriarty said.
On average, hospital capacity in New Brunswick has been six per cent above pre-pandemic levels every day during the Omicron period, he said. This does not include labor shortages.
The estimated national average of overcapacity is seven percent.
Omicron hospitalizations so far have cost the province about $ 99 million, Moriarty said.