When asked to share their sincere thoughts on the chances of Democrats clinging to a majority in their House in the next election, party strategists often use words that cannot be printed in a family bulletin.
But a brighter image is gathering for Democrats on the Senate side. There, Republicans are gathering what a top strategist described laughing as an “island of misfits”: a motley collection of candidates the Democratic Party hopes to present as out of the mainstream of politics, personally committed and too welcoming. with Donald Trump.
These vulnerabilities have led to difficult weeks for Republican Senate candidates in several of the most competitive races:
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Arizona: Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who won Trump’s endorsement and leads polls in Republican primaries, has been criticized for saying “blacks, frankly” are responsible for most armed violence in the U.S. Other Republicans have attacked him. by previous comments supporting “unrestricted immigration.”
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Georgia: Herschel Walker, the GOP candidate for Senator Raphael Warnock, acknowledged being the father of three previously unrevealed children. Walker regularly criticizes absent parents.
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Pennsylvania: Dr. Mehmet Oz, who lived in New Jersey before announcing his Senate candidacy, runs the risk of appearing inauthentic. Recently, Oz misspelled the name of his new hometown in an official document.
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Nevada: Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general, said at a pancake breakfast last month that “Roe v. Wade was always a joke.” This is an unpopular position in socially liberal Nevada, where 63 percent of adults say abortion should be mostly legal.
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Wisconsin: Sen. Ron Johnson made a cameo in the Jan. 6 hearings when it emerged that, on the day of the attack, he wanted to hand over a fraudulent voter list to former Vice President Mike Pence.
Republicans respond with some political arguments of their own, blaming Democrats for rising prices and saying they have turned too far to the left for major voters.
In Pennsylvania, for example, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate candidate, supports universal health care, federal legalization of marijuana, and criminal justice reform. Republicans have been reviewing his history and past comments to describe him as similar to Bernie Sanders, the self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist.
Candidate vs. candidate
One factor working in favor of Democrats is the fact that only a third of the Senate is ready for re-election, and many races are in pro-Democrat states.
Another is the fact that races in the Senate may be more different than those in the House, influenced less by national trends and more by the personalities of the candidates. Advertising budgets for races in the Senate can reach hundreds of millions of dollars, giving candidates the opportunity to define themselves and their opponents.
Democrats rely heavily on personality-driven campaigns, promoting Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona as a former moderate and kind astronaut and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada as a fighter for the right to abortion, retail workers, and families. .
“Campaigns in the Senate are battles between candidates and candidates,” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senate campaign arm. “And while Democratic incumbents and candidates have developed their own brands, Republicans have put in deeply and deeply flawed candidates.” Bergstein is not objective, but this analysis holds some truth.
If elections were held today, polls suggest Democrats would be heavily favored to maintain control of the Senate. Republican elites are also terrified that voters could nominate Eric Greitens, the scandal-ridden former governor, for the open seat in the Missouri Senate, endangering a seat that would otherwise be safe.
But the election, of course, is not held today, and the polls are fallible, as we saw in 2020. So there is still a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. Biden’s approval rate remains low and inflation is the main problem in the minds of voters, not the weaknesses of individual candidates.
For now, Democrats are pretty happy with themselves for making lemonade with a decidedly sour political environment.
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Institutional confidence continues in a downward spiral
Here’s a flashing warning light for U.S. centers of power: Confidence in U.S. institutions has fallen to new depths over the past year, according to a poll released Monday by Gallup.
The most pronounced falls, Gallup found, were for the Supreme Court and the presidency. Confidence in the court has dropped 11 percentage points since 2021, while confidence in the presidency has fallen by 15 percentage points.
Gallup tracks public views on 16 institutions in an annual survey. Confidence in the three branches of the federal government has reached historic lows. Congress rounds out the bottom line, with only 7% betting on a “big deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the legislature.
Understand the 2022 midterm elections
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Why are these mid-term races so important? This year’s races could tip the balance of power in Congress to Republicans, hampering President Biden’s agenda for the second half of his term. They will also test the role of former President Donald J. Trump as creator of GOP kings. Here’s what you need to know:
What are the midterm elections? The middle legislatures take place two years after a presidential election, in the middle of a presidential term, hence the name. This year, there are many seats at stake, including the 435 seats in the House, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 of the 50 governors.
What do the middle parts mean for Biden? With small majorities in Congress, Democrats have struggled to pass Mr. Biden’s agenda. Republican control of the House or Senate would make the legislative goals of the president almost impossible.
What are the races to see? Only a handful of seats will determine whether Democrats maintain control of the House over Republicans, and a single state could change power in the Senate 50-50. Here are 10 races to see in the House and Senate, as well as several key governor contests.
When do key races take place? The primary glove is already up and running. Races were held in May in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, and more races were held during the summer. The primaries run until September before the November 8 general election.
Deepen. What is redistricting and how does it affect midterm elections? How does the survey work? How do you register to vote? We have more answers to your urgent questions in the medium term here.
At the other end of the spectrum, Americans still express high levels of trust in two institutions in particular: small business and the military.
But of all the institutions Gallup follows, all but organized workers have fallen in public esteem in the past 12 months.
Do you think there is something we are missing? Anything you want to see more? We would love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.