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Abacus Date: Supporters with a negative outlook have raised seven points; followers with a positive outlook have dropped eight points
Date Posted:
May 30, 2022 • 1 hour ago • 3 minutes of reading • 194 comments Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre speaks during the Conservative Party of Canada’s French-language leadership debate in Laval, Quebec, on May 25, 2022. Photo by Ryan Remiorz / The Canadian Press / File
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Three weeks ago, Charles Vincent drove to a local hotel in Notre-Dame-du-Bon-Conseil, Que., To meet Pierre Poilievre. Vincent ended up buying a subscription and even took a picture with the Ottawa Area MP, whom he first heard about during the truck convoy last January.
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But after this week’s French debate, Vincent is not so sure he will vote for Poilievre.
The agricultural representative told the National Post that he had another good look at former Quebec Prime Minister Jean Charest, who said he sounded like a true leader. Vincent has not yet made a final decision, but it seems less and less likely that Poilievre will vote.
“It’s okay for me if you like bitcoins or if you want to oust the governor of the Bank of Canada. But all this is secondary. Right now there is a war in Ukraine,” Vincent said.
Rima El-Helou, a former Conservative candidate in Laval, Que., Said she supported Poilievre early in the race, when the deputy was the only declared candidate, thinking there would be no real leadership race but a coronation. . .
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“When I realized there would be a race, I thought I might have reacted too quickly,” he said.
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Charest and Brown’s ‘Little Coalition’ with Poilievre during the French debate
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“If we lose the next one, we’re done,” the center-right group warned the Conservative Party
The stories of Vincent and El-Helou are not unique. In fact, recent issues published by Abacus Data show that there has been a recent but remarkable change in the opinion of conservative voters about Poilievre, the first and clear favorite.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said his company has been conducting several surveys since March and that this is the first time Poilievre’s numbers are heading “in a negative direction”.
Followers who have a negative view of Poilievre have gone up seven points, while followers who have a positive view of the candidate have dropped eight points in the last three weeks. Poilievre remains the clear favorite among conservative voters, well ahead of his five opponents.
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Coletto said the change could be a reflection of Poilievre doubling his controversial promises to fire the Bank of Canada governor and promote cryptography just as the Canadian dollar was collapsing. But is this a tough period of the Poilievre campaign or the beginning of a trend?
“We do not know, we will have to see. But it is the first indication that he could be vulnerable, that his positive image is not impenetrable. And it might suggest that some supporters are reconsidering or considering the pros and cons of being the party leader, “the pollster said.
But while Poilievre may have some cracks in his armor, there is no real move toward other candidates like Charest or Brampton, Ont., Mayor Patrick Brown among Conservative supporters.
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“Mr. Charest remains the least popular candidate among conservatives across the country. And this is still his biggest obstacle. One in four Conservative supporters does not like it. That’s 11 points more than Mr. Poilievre, “said Coletto.
“And Mr. Brown is flying under the radar. The Conservatives don’t know much about it yet. this is also reflected in the figures “, he added.
Poilievre has shown no signs of backing down in some of his most controversial positions, even though they are presumably hurting him in the polls, and he has not hesitated to react to those who have criticized him by saying they are “elites” outside. contact. . ”
Candidates have until June 3 to sign up new members and the voting process will take place over the summer. The new leader will be announced on September 10.
It remains to be seen if Poilievre’s team will be able to get a victory in the first ballot, as they did not expect so secretly. If current polling trends continue, Coletto warns that the road to victory “may be more complicated and interrupted than it could have been a few weeks ago.”
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