OTTAWA — Ontario MPP Pierre Poilievre remains the heavy favorite to be the next leader of the Conservative party, but he’s trailing challenger Jean Charest for support among Canadians overall.
A new Leger poll conducted in partnership with the Canadian Studies Association suggests that 44% of Conservative voters believe Poilievre would be the party’s best leader. His main rival, former Quebec premier Jean Charest, has the support of 17 percent.
The survey was conducted online Aug. 5-7 among 1,500 Canadian adults drawn from Leger’s representative panel. A margin of error cannot be given because online surveys are not considered a statistically representative sample.
Twenty-two percent of conservatives said they did not know which of the five candidates would make the best leader, while eight percent said none of them would.
Among the remaining candidates, Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis received six per cent support, Ontario MLA Scott Aitchison at two per cent and former Ontario provincial politician Roman Baber at one per cent.
This is the first poll of Leger’s race since Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown was kicked out of the contest by the leadership organizing committee last month over allegations he broke party rules and possibly violated federal election laws.
In a June Leger poll, Poilievre also had 44% support among conservatives, Charest had 14% support and Brown received 4% support. The August poll pushed Charest’s numbers up three points, while Poilievre’s numbers remained unchanged.
Christian Bourque, Leger’s executive vice president, said that with ballots already cast, all signs point to a victory for Poilievre.
But he said the poll is also indicative that the Conservatives’ preferred candidate could face a tougher road to a general election victory.
The poll suggests Charest is considered the best choice for the job of Conservative leader by 22 per cent of all Canadians, while Poilievre has the support of 16 per cent.
About one in seven Canadians polled said a Poilievre win would make them more likely to vote Conservative in the next election, with only a small fraction more saying the same than a Charest win.
However, more than one in four people polled said a Poilievre win would make them less likely to vote Conservative, compared to one in five who said this about Charest.
That divide is starkest in seat-rich Ontario, where a Poilievre win would make 28% of respondents less likely to vote Conservative, compared with 16% who said Charest.
In Alberta, 24% of people polled said they would be more likely to vote Tory if Poilievre wins, and 18% said they would be less likely to do so. If Charest wins, 14 percent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote Conservative, while 27 percent said they would be less likely.
Bourque said that opens up some existential questions for the Conservatives, who are already winning big in Alberta, with 30 of the province’s 34 seats. In Ontario, the Conservatives hold 37 of the 121 seats available and must do better in the most populous province to form government.
Bourque said Poilievre could help the Conservatives win the same seats by larger margins in Alberta, but won’t do much to help move the needle in Ontario.
“With a Charest win, the math wouldn’t be the same,” he said.
The Conservatives will announce the leadership winner on September 10.