Some Liberals told The Age they objected to the poll’s wording, which assumes state campaigns will find candidates of similar quality to Ryan and Daniel.
Climate 200 Executive Director Byron Fay at this month’s National Press Club. Credit: Olive + Meave
Yaron Gottlieb, who worked with independent candidate Daniel in his seat of Goldstein, said that while no candidate had been endorsed, there were locals interested in standing as candidates in Sandringham and Brighton.
He said there was currently “zero fund surge” for a campaign in Caulfield, which is expected to be a close contest between the Labor leader and Liberal deputy leader David Southwick.
Voters in the Brighton, Caulfield and Sandringham seats were asked who they would support if given a choice between a “candidate like Zoe Daniel” or another party. Local Liberal MPs were appointed. In Hawthorn and Kew, the same question was asked about Ryan and the local Liberal candidates were named.
Environment and Climate Change Spokesperson, James Newbury. Credit: Joe Armao
The survey found:
- In Brighton (750 respondents), 39 per cent said they would vote Liberal (down six per cent on the 2018 election result), 23 per cent said they would vote Labour, 23 per cent said they would for an independent and seven percent said they would vote for the Greens. Redbridge calculated that those results would lead to a two-game favorite 51-49 win at an independent.
- In Sandringham (744 respondents), 31% said they would vote Liberal (down 11%), 27% said they would vote Labour, 25% said they would vote independent and 7% said that. I would vote Green. Redbridge believes that would lead to a 54-46 win for an independent.
- In Caulfield (837 respondents), 37% of people said they would vote Liberal (down 10%), 23% said they would vote Labour, 19% said they would vote independent and 14% say i would vote Green Redbridge said that would result in a 56-44 win for an independent.
- In Hawthorn (979 respondents), 37% said they would vote Liberal (down 8%), 22% said they would vote Labour, 22% said they would vote Independent and 12% said they would . green Redbridge said that would result in a 55-45 independent victory.
- In Kew (918 respondents), 37% said they would vote Liberal (down 12%), 24% said they would support an independent, 23% said they would vote Labor and 7% said they would vote Green . . Redbridge said that would result in a 55-45 independent victory.
All electoral seats are held by the Liberal Party, except Hawthorn, which is held by Labour. The poll shows support for Labor is also down compared to 2018. Both major parties believe there has been a tightening in recent months between the Coalition and Labour.
A Liberal source connected to the Hawthorn campaign said the level of support for an independent represented about half of Ryan’s May primary vote and was a sign of the suitability of moderate Liberal candidate John Pesutto. However, Green candidates like Ryan and Daniel were polling teenagers three months before the federal election.
The Coalition is desperate to retain inner-city seats and take back Hawthorn to regain the 18 seats needed to form government in the 88-seat parliament. The Coalition’s recently announced climate change policy package was designed to secure the support of urban voters.
Although not included in the poll, The Age has spoken to three sources who confirmed that all independent candidates will also run in the seat of South-West Coast and Benambra.
Once represented by former Victorian Premier Denis Napthine, the South West Coast is currently held by Liberal MP Roma Roma Britnell with a margin of 3.3% and is within the boundaries of the federal seat of Wannon, where former trade minister Dan Tehan suffered a meltdown. six percent change after a strong campaign by independent candidate Alex Dyson.
The north-east seat of Benambra is held by Bill Tilley, but is entirely within the federal electorate of Indi, which has been held by an independent for almost a decade.
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