Connor McDavid v. Nathan MacKinnon.
This is. This is the lede.
This is the selling point of this series, a heavyweight tilt between two of the best players in the world, who finally faced the pinnacle of their powers. No better than that. It’s this generation’s version of the epic battles between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, but faster. You know it’s a big deal when the NHL markets its players for once.
This series could be between McDavid and MacKinnon plus 40 random guys and still be interesting, but luckily each team is even more than that. Cale Makar, Leon Draisaitl, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog – the stars will shine in what should be an exciting and high octane series with a great offensive.
As interesting as the individual battles may be along with the promise of many goals, unfortunately there is one thing in this series that slightly reduces the intrigue: an even showdown.
Possibilities
This is not meant to detract from the Edmonton Oilers, who are legitimately proving to be one of the best teams in the league. The Oilers are often the subject of a lot of jokes, but they have been a legitimate force under Jay Woodcroft and a place at the end of the conference is their reward for that. They earned their place here, but their place here means a confrontation against their toughest enemy so far.
Uneven odds are more of a comment on Edmonton’s competition, the Colorado Avalanche, which eventually overcame the second-round hump on the road to potentially prove they are the best team, not one of them. The Avalanche has been a steam engine for several years, building a deep team led by some of the best players in the league. They are a team with few holes and an incredible top of the range: they would be big favorites against anyone, not just the Oilers. This is actually the closest series to Colorado so far, as the Avalanche was 92% against Nashville and 85% against St. Louis. Louis.
A 75 percent shot is far from a guarantee. Colorado is heavily favored for a reason, but the Oilers also have the road to victory. They’ve just knocked down an elite Calgary team as a underdog, with relative ease, and they have the best player in the world playing out of their minds right now. The odds may be balanced in one direction, but that only suggests that there is more confidence in the team that Colorado has built compared to Edmonton. This will not be a cake in any way.
Season statistics
Colorado’s dominant regular season is one of the main reasons they are so favorites, with the top 10 rankings in most metrics. But in this league, especially once the playoffs start, the question is “what have you been up to lately?”
In the postseason so far, the Avalanche has raised the bar in many areas. They have increased their shooting volume, but have not seen much improvement in their expected goal generation thanks to the blues having limited some quality shots. But Colorado has done an even better job limiting shots and goal opportunities against, although their opponents are once again a factor here between St. Louis. Louis and even more so Nashville.
Although Colorado saw a team that had scoring depth in the last round of the Blues, it will now face a team with a lot of firepower at the head of its lineup. The Oilers ’second half of the regular season was stronger than the start, thanks to adjustments from their new coaching staff. Through two rounds of the playoffs, even against two teams with defensive strengths, Edmonton managed to increase his shot and the expected generation of goals in the regular season, and have a better goal rate to prove it. Therefore, the Avalanche should expect a tougher workload for its defense and goalkeeper who has escaped the regular season.
The downside of the Oilers is the reproduction in their own end. Edmonton adjusted their focus to neutral and defensive areas to improve the way they supported their goalkeepers, but has conceded more quality shots and looks since then, which has led to a loss of their expected goal percentage. . Now the challenge is to stay as close as possible to one of the best offensive forces in the league.
Colorado’s stellar offensive extends to the power play, which has been highlighted in the playoffs. Edmonton also has no advantage over the advantage. The penalty is when things are a little different.
The Avalanche are better at limiting their opponents to creating quality aspects, but the goalkeeper has not supported it. The Oilers had the goalkeeper while they were scarce, but kept Mike Smith busy without much support on the penalty spot.
Breakdown of the list
Obviously, the breakdown of the list starts right at the top with the main attraction of this series: McDavid vs. MacKinnon. Two exciting, electric superstars at the helm of their games, both of whom have shown an innate ability to thrive in the playoffs. It will be a thrill to see the two face to face, hoping to trade end-to-end outstanding rollers.
The big question here is whether MacKinnon can match what McDavid is bringing to the table, especially what it is currently contributing. McDavid has been out of this world in the playoffs, making the best playoff performance we’ve seen in a long time. It was enough to ensure the deep dive treatment with its totally ridiculous playoff winning pace. He is expected to be a six-win player, an extremely high amount for hockey, but in the playoffs he has been close to double, currently at a rate of 10.9 wins. The entire Colorado top line, as it is currently being built, has a total of 10.2 wins.
McDavid has 26 points in 12 games and has dragged an Oilers team into the third round almost on its own. The difference between the Colorado and Edmonton strikers is 4.7 wins, close to the exact amount McDavid is playing above expectations right now. Stopping him means stopping Edmonton, but in this postseason, that has been easier said than done.
McDavid is doing everything right now with the Oilers scoring three-quarters of the goals whenever he’s on the ice, with his offense, in particular, absurdly high. In five-on-five, the Oilers have scored 7.33 goals for 60 with McDavid on the ice, a staggering figure that has led to their ridiculous total points in these playoffs.
MacKinnon has been excellent in his own right, but not much at this level. He showed lightning, that is, match 5 against St. Louis, but not with the constant degree that McDavid has. It’s an extremely high bar, and while the Avalanche doesn’t need MacKinnon to match McDavid to win, they do need it at least to get closer. A player should not be able to dictate a series, but this version of McDavid does. If McDavid can continue its torrid path, the avalanche is in trouble, and that means MacKinnon has to live up to it.
He is expected to be a five-win player, but in these playoffs he has increased his game to play at a rate of 6.7 wins. This is incredibly strong and the tallest of all the remaining strikers, but still far behind McDavid. That’s to be expected with half the points, but MacKinnon has room to be even better and at least get closer to the level of McDavid. He has shown that in each of the last two qualifiers and here is room to dominate. At five-on-five, their percentages of expected and actual goals are the same as McDavid’s: it’s at a much slower pace with fewer goals in either direction. McDavid’s braking will be a crucial part of this showdown and is likely to fall to MacKinnon.
So far, in 40 minutes of face-to-face over the past three seasons, MacKinnon has beaten McDavid 2-1 and scored 60 percent of the expected goals. But he has never faced this version of McDavid either. It should be a pleasure to see you.
These two are not the only protagonists of this series, there is also the poster with two amazing teammates: Draisaitl for the Oilers and Rantanen for the Avalanche. Sidekick feels tough with two players who would be the best players on most teams, but unfortunately here he is right considering the shadows that both players live in.
Draisaitl’s performance in these playoffs has been very special in its own right. Despite having ankle problems that have limited his mobility (and his ability to anchor his own line), he has found a way to dominate anyway thanks to his enormous playing ability. He is tied with McDavid for the postseason lead in points with 26 of his own, 17 of which came in five games against Calgary. It’s worth noting that 11 of Draisaitl’s 19 assists are secondary, after all it’s still McDavid’s show, but that doesn’t take away from the vitality that has been for the front-line attack. Defensively, the problems are still there (their relative defensive numbers are pretty serious) with ankle problems only aggravating it, but Draisaitl is offensively contributing more than enough to mitigate it.
There is the question of putting all the eggs in one basket, especially with Colorado opting for two high power lines. One is directed by MacKinnon and the other by Rantanen, who is on the second line to start the series. Separating the dynamic duet was not a common occurrence this season, but the two had plenty of playing time aside where Rantanen really thrived. With 387 minutes left in the match, Rantanen’s Rantanen managed to get hold of the rebound and tucked the ball into the empty net. It’s a potential big luxury to have on the second line, and surprisingly, those numbers were actually stronger than their numbers with MacKinnon.
That’s partly why the two have the same projected values, but Rantanen has struggled to match the production expected in these playoffs. In relation to his teammates, his impact on real and expected goals has been negative, his 11 points in 10 games are lower than his usual points rate and he only has one goal. It should intensify, and a secondary role could help with …