Igor Shesterkin Vs. Andrei Vasilevsky.
This is. This is the lede.
This is the selling point of this series, a heavyweight tilt between two of the best goalkeepers in the world, who go head to head at the height of their powers. No better than that.
It’s nice when the same leadership works for the two finals of the conference and while the Western Conference will be dominated by an offensive style, the Eastern Conference will instead be a duel of goalkeepers for all ages. There are a lot of star players on both sides who will no doubt increase the intrigue, but let’s be honest: what will intrigue them the most is how the goalkeepers manage them.
Like the battle on the other side, however, there is a clear favorite that slightly attenuates the confrontation.
Possibilities
It should come as no surprise that the two-time Stanley Cup defenders are favorites in this series; the only surprise might be that this is the first time they are favorites this postseason. Maybe this is a bad omen for some fans, but mostly it was just the model who saw a big talent gap between the Atlantic side of support and the metropolitan side. Florida and Toronto were heavyweights and the Lightning beat them with their experience. The Rangers aren’t quite at that level, and they have a similar lack of experience that can make it difficult for them here.
However, the Rangers should not be underestimated. This will be the first time in these playoffs that there is anything resembling a matched goalkeeper on the other side, but that is still possibly an advantage for the Rangers. He is one of those who have shot all season with incredible success, and these days the team in front also seems much more capable.
The big question, though, is whether Brayden Point fits the Lightning. It was listed as a day-to-day before the Panthers series and has been given plenty of time to recover, but its status is still uncertain and does not seem close. The odds mentioned above are based on the return of points for game 5, which can be generous. If he doesn’t play at all, Tampa Bay’s chances of advancing to his third straight Stanley Cup final drop to 62 percent.
This is no guarantee and New York can be comforted by the fact that its odds against hurricanes were similar.
Season statistics
Just a quick look at the Rangers ’regular season metrics indicate exactly why they’ve been the underdogs in every game so far. His five-on-five offense was minor. Defensive improvements were made at the end of the season, but they are still not impressive overall. Power play and goalkeeper scoring were key components of his success, which is not the most sustainable way.
To the credit of the Rangers, there have been some improvements in the postseason below the surface where they needed it offensively, with more shots and generating quality opportunities (with results slightly below expectations). Defensively, though, New York allowed for more setbacks, and much of that comes from a challenging Round 1 series where there was little structure in sight from the back.
The Lightning, on the other hand, were a team in the top 10 of the two ends of the ice in five-on-five in the regular season. In the playoffs, Tampa Bay saw their offensive generation go down slightly and Point’s injury doesn’t help things move forward. The same thing happens on the defensive, but the goalkeeper has made a difference to make up for it. This also extends to the death penalty.
This is an area where Lightning will be tested, as the Rangers may end up with an advantage. Their expected goal generation is not at the level of the regular season, which could bite them if New York fails to overcome their opponents ’attempts to block the center.
The Tampa Bay power play has been more successful in the postseason than in the regular season, but the results are falling short of expectations. This will face a penalty that is not as strong on the defensive as it was in the regular season, but (like the Lightning) has a goalkeeper to mask it.
There’s a way for Tampa Bay to show why they are the reigning champions. But there is a way for the Rangers to exploit the Lightning in this clash, while maintaining their status as a disruptive disadvantage in the playoffs.
This series could very well determine which goalkeeper is more taquí as a decisive end.
Breakdown of the list
Vasilevsky v. Shesterkin is the to match.
On one side of the ice will be the elite goalkeeper who has earned that reputation thanks to his postseason experience. It’s impossible to talk about the Lightning Stanley Cup races without accrediting Vasilevskiy.
In 2020, he earned a .927 savings percentage and saved 13.7 goals above expectations in 25 games. A season later, he overcame that as Tampa Bay struggled to retain its championship. In 23 games, Vasilevskiy had a brilliant savings rate of .937. And depending on the workload he faced, he saved 17.3 more goals than expected. He is considered the best goalkeeper in the “data age” since the 2008 postseason. His 2020 GSAx came in fourth, just behind Jonas Hiller in 2008-09 and Mike Smith in 2011-12. .
Most importantly, the Lightning know they can count on Vasilevsky between the pipes. He closed out his opponents in the last six of the seven playoff games, which go back to the 2020 Cup final against Dallas. He not more The goal against which he has allowed in a decisive was Morgan Rielly in game 7 of round 1 of this postseason. Otherwise, he has been perfect, with his best performance so far against the Panthers in the series game, when he saved 3.7 goals more than expected and deflected 49 shots. All in all during the last seven series games, he has earned a GSAx of 16.7. There is not much better than that.
So it’s no surprise that Vasilevsky came into the postseason with the second-best projected value among the position with 4.8 wins.
To start this postseason, he was not playing the Conn Smyth caliber play that was expected of him. But when he mattered most in that series, he elevated his game. Vasilevsky broke the Panthers’ hopes in four games. Against the 13 goals scored against him, he saved 10 goals, keeping Florida to just three counts in the entire series.
In total, in 11 games, Vasilevskiy has a savings rate of .932 with 10.1 goals saved above expectations (5.9 of which have come in two series games, only).
The only player in the playoffs to be ahead of the Lightning starter in expected value is the blue paint in New York.
Shesterkin leads the way with an expected value of 5.9 wins. This is what happens when you are the best goalkeeper in the regular season. Along with a .935 savings percentage in the regular season, he led the league with 37.2 goals saved above expectations, nine ahead of the next best, Frederik Andersen.
Despite some of the Rangers’ shortcomings in front of the net, Shestserkin gave his team a chance to win with 38 quality starts. And considering the attack he stopped, compared to what generated the team in front of him, he also stole nine victories.
But there were some question marks in the postseason. Would there be a fatigue factor after leading the Rangers in their longest professional season so far? Earlier this year, where he played 53 regular-season games, his longest season between the regular season and the playoffs was 44 games. Then there was the stretch of play when he returned to Earth at the end of the season, which he might have sown then in doubt.
Shesterkin opened the postseason with an elite performance, but fell in Games 3 and 4 in Pittsburgh during Round 1 when the team’s defensive structure collapsed completely. He recovered to finish the series and really increased his performance against the Hurricanes, saving 11.4 goals more than expected in seven games. That brought him to a total of 15.8 in the postseason in 14 games, leading the league. So while Shesterkin may not have Vasilevsky’s resume, he’s building it with his NHL experiences as they arrive.
The goalkeepers ’confrontation in this series will be an absolute delight, but with the two goalkeepers so close in capacity, it’s likely that it won’t even be the deciding factor in the series. It may be reduced to how the team in front of them isolates the netminders superstars, specifically in defense.
This is where Tampa Bay has the advantage both front and back, especially thanks to the depth that the Lightning have accumulated in both positions. They are a team with few holes.
Defensively, the group is, of course, led by Victor Hedman, who is once again having a wonderful postseason. He leads all Tampa Bay skaters in GSVA with 0.56 wins, a 4.2-win pace that is a decent shadow above what has been projected. Getting 10 points in 11 games will do, but his five-on-five game has also been fantastic as always.
The Lightning have won 54 percent of expected goals and 58 percent of actual goals during the playoffs with Hedman on the ice. This is in tough minutes against some legitimate superstar talent from Toronto and Florida, both of whom were perplexed against Hedman. The Panthers, in particular, looked very frustrated against Hedman and did not score a single goal against him in 65 minutes at five to five. We thank Vasilevsky for most of this, but Hedman’s defensive ability also plays a role.
With him on the ice, Vasilevsky’s life is much easier. The duo have easily been Tampa Bay’s top players so far.
Hedman isn’t the only strong player out there. The Lightning also features Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev, all of whom are expected to be the best caliber. Part of Tampa Bay’s charm is having four such players on the blue line, a luxury that very few teams have. It allows Lightning to safely freeze deep players like Zach Bogosian or Cal Foote without much trouble, as it always …