The railroad has long been quietly preparing for what is being headed as the biggest industrial battle in a generation. Now, with the weapon of a national strike vote ready, the RMT railway union has to decide whether to pull the trigger.
Its national executive committee will discuss the next steps in the coming days, after 40,000 members of Network Rail and 15 train companies voted overwhelmingly in favor of the action. For now, he is officially inviting further talks with train operating companies, a slightly perplexing position for some in the industry, who said the RMT had been launched before discussions on payment began.
However, many expect that the first of what is likely to be a series of 24-hour shutdowns will be called in late June. With an estimated daily cost of £ 30 million, this will prove, as Transport Secretary Grant Shapps warned, detrimental to a highly recoverable industry, but not necessarily a total logistical crisis for the country, as some they suggested.
High-ranking railroad figures looked horrified as Shapps said ministers were considering limiting the right to strike, a move that inevitably inflamed unions. More thoughtful parts of the government have quietly tried to avoid conflict: leaders are drawing up contingency plans that will not work if all railway unions join the strike.
For the RMT, there is a major impact on a unanimous vote, with Govia Thameslink Railway employees only supporting the action before a strike. GTR contains three major commuter operations, Thameslink, Great Northern and Southern. The latter was the scene of bitter and prolonged strikes in 2016-17, a time when most of his clients were forced to come to London to work independently.
Office staff have now been shown to be able to work from home, a change that will greatly reduce the political pressure on suburban MPs to resolve strikes at any cost. And without continuous strikes for more than 72 hours, there is little chance that goods or energy supplies will be disrupted, despite terrible warnings about the critical role of rail freight.
The strikes in the South are a reminder that the staff of the RMT train alone was not enough, even then, to force a total halt.
The strikes in the South also remind us that the staff of the RMT train alone was not enough, even then, to force a total halt, or to completely stop the reforms they were fighting against.
The critical weapon of the RMT in any strike this time will be its 20,000 members of Network Rail, including about 5,000 signalers, who could stop large parts of the network in operation. But newer parts of the railroad, such as Thameslink and major intercity lines, use digital signage that can be operated by a handful of staff, allowing non-RMT managers and signalers to maintain limited service.
Other unions may still play a role, including the TSSA, which accounts for most of the middle management, including contingency staff, and would have an influence on the combined action. The machinists’ union, Aslef, is unlikely to act before the autumn, but as a dispute in Scotland shows, even the withdrawal of the day off can have a massive impact on an industry that has a shortage of drivers.
However, the confrontation threatens to intensify. There is no obvious answer to the changing patterns of travel and lower revenue of the railroad, which has so many fixed costs. One target could be rolling stock companies, which have continued to make big profits. But the payment and productivity of the railway will come first, and the prospect of a quiet solution, with the rate of wage increase linked to an index that is normally enjoyed at all levels, has been reduced with galloping inflation. .
This makes bets higher for staff, whose salaries are eroded, but also for ministers, who seem to be paying attention, despite protests, to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who urged to wage moderation to curb inflation, despite the cost of … living crisis.
The immediate pain of any politician may not be so much that the railway stops, but the result will be watched closely by other parts of the public sector, also desperate for a pay rise, which may bear the insignia of the frontline heroes of the pandemic with even more. justification that railway staff.