Rising sea levels will force the abandonment of some 200,000 coastal properties in England in 30 years, according to new data, as the climate crisis worsens.
These are homes that cannot be saved, or that would be too expensive to try to save, with measures such as dikes and other coastal defenses. Some of the most risky areas include North Somerset, Sedgemoor, Wyre, North East Lincolnshire and Swale.
The study comes after warnings last week from the head of the Environment Agency, Sir James Bevan, that many homes would be impossible or not cheap to save, and entire communities would have to move inland, which call it “the hardest of all uncomfortable truths.” .
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The value of homes at risk is tens of billions of pounds, and rising sea levels that will cause flooding are now almost inevitable, given the growing pace of the climate crisis.
Sea level around the English coast is expected to be about 35 cm higher by 2050. In addition, the coasts are eroding, causing higher waves, especially when there are storms. .
An estimated 200,000 homes and businesses at risk of abandonment come from researchers at the Tyndall Center at the University of East Anglia, published in the peer-reviewed journal Oceans and Coastal Management.
Paul Sayers, lead author of the paper, said: “Significant sea level rise is now inevitable. For many of our larger coastal cities, protection will continue to be provided, but for some coastal communities this “We need a serious national debate on the scale of the threat to these communities and what a fair and sustainable response is, including how to help people move.”
Bevan told a conference last week: “In the long run, climate change means that some of our communities, both in this country and around the world, cannot stay where they are. that while we can safely return and rebuild better after most river floods, there is no return for land that coastal erosion has taken or sea level rise has permanently or frequently placed under water “.
He added: “In some places, the right answer, in economic, strategic and human terms, must be to keep communities away from danger rather than trying to protect them from the inevitable impacts of rising sea levels.”
Earlier estimates of the number of homes at risk were lower, as government estimates have not been kept up to date with climate science. In 2018, the Climate Change Committee warned that about a third of the UK coast was in danger.
Jim Hall, a professor of climate and environmental risk at Oxford University who did not take part in the latest study, said: “These changes will come sooner than we might think, and we need to plan now how we can adjust, including a nationwide strategic approach to deciding how to manage the coast sustainably in the future.” .