Russia’s Gazprom finally acted after weeks of threats and hints overnight, reducing the already reduced flow of gas through the Nord Stream One pipeline to just 20 percent of its full capacity.
The move sparked fresh concerns in Germany, Italy and other European countries that rely heavily on Russian gas piped from Vyborg, Russia, to Germany’s Baltic coast.
But it also raised new questions for Canada’s government, which issued a controversial waiver from sanctions that was supposed to allow Gazprom to restore normal flows to Europe, which had fallen by about 60% since June.
As of 3 a.m. today, the flow is down by 80 percent, a rate that makes it virtually impossible for European countries that rely on Russian gas to fill their underground storage tanks for the winter .
The Kremlin, which controls Gazprom, has been tinkering with gas supplies to Europe in an effort to weaken sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has argued that technical problems caused by the sanctions prevented normal deliveries.
The turbine dispute
At the center of these arguments are half a dozen Siemens gas turbines that compress and propel gas through the undersea pipeline. These pipes are typically removed from service on a regular rotating schedule and renewed at Siemens Energy Canada’s Montreal workshops.
But when Canada sanctioned Russia’s oil and gas sector, Siemens Energy was unable to return one of the turbines to Russia via Germany.
Russia warned it would cut flow unless it restored its turbine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government asked Canada to make an exception to its sanctions regime to allow the turbine’s return.
“We were certainly under a lot of pressure from Germany and the European Union, and on the other hand we were under pressure from the Ukrainian government,” Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told CBC News on 11 July, a day after his government granted a “temporary” and “revocable” sanctions relief to allow the turbine’s return.
The Trudeau government’s decision was heavily criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian diaspora organizations in Canada.
Calling the bluff of the Kremlin
No one can claim that the flow reductions surprised the governments of Germany or Canada, both of which have insisted they are not naïve about Russia’s intentions.
Wilkinson told CBC News after tendering the resignation that his government was well aware that Russia was using the turbine as a pretext and that it might not restore full flow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin “was saying very publicly that if the turbines were not returned, it would be our fault that Germany was losing access to Russian gas,” the minister said.
“That doesn’t mean Putin won’t shut it down on his own. But it’s a very different circumstance than being able to say it was because of Canada’s unwillingness to help our friends in Germany.”
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“We had to remove the excuses that President Putin has as to why the Nord Stream pipeline could be shut down,” Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said of the decision to return the sanctioned Russian turbines, insisting that the decision it’s not a bet.
German leaders said their country was determined to call Putin’s bluff on the turbine, knowing full well he could still manipulate the flow based on political calculations.
“We’re delivering now to prevent Russia from having the excuse that we’re basically hurting ourselves,” Sabine Sparwasser, Germany’s ambassador to Canada, told CBC News.
“In the opinion of many experts, it is a pretext, but we remove this pretext. We are delivering the turbine and then we will see if there is a weaponization of the energy stopping the delivery or not.”
Resignation questioned
Now that Germany and Canada have the answer to that question, it raises another one. What does all this mean for future turbine deliveries and the continuation of the exemption from sanctions, which is, after all, “temporary and revocable”?
As currently structured, the exemption would extend for two years and allow numerous turbines to circulate across Canada.
The exact location of the turbine already returned under the penalty waiver is unclear. Russian media reported on July 18 that it was on its way from Germany to the Russian Portovaya compressor station.
On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed it had not yet arrived in Russia. “We hope it happens … sooner rather than later,” he said.
“The situation is critically complicated by the restrictions and sanctions that had been imposed on our country.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, listens to Alexei Miller, head of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, during a meeting in Moscow on September 16, 2020. (Mikhail Klimentyev/The Associated Press)
But Siemens Energy told CBC News that the only obstacle to the turbine’s entry into Russia was the Russian government’s failure to provide an import permit.
“The German authorities provided Siemens Energy with all the necessary documents for the export of the turbine to Russia early last week. Gazprom is aware of this,” a Siemens spokesman said. “What is missing, however, are customs documents for import into Russia. Gazprom, as a customer, is obliged to provide them.”
CBC News has asked Global Affairs and Natural Resources Canada whether it intends to maintain or revoke the waiver and is awaiting a response.