Day after day, Russia is hitting the Donbas region of Ukraine with relentless artillery and airstrikes, making slow but steady progress to seize its neighbor’s industrial heart.
With the conflict in its fourth month, it is a high-risk campaign that could dictate the course of the entire war.
If Russia wins the battle of Donbas, it will mean that Ukraine will lose not only land, but perhaps the bulk of its most capable military forces, paving the way for Moscow to take more territory and dictate its terms to Kyiv. A Russian failure could lay the groundwork for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and possibly provoke a political upheaval for the Kremlin.
The multiple rocket launcher of a Donetsk People’s Republic militia fired from its position on the territory under the pro-Russian government of the Donetsk People’s Republic. (AP)
After the first failed attempts at the invasion to capture Kyiv and the second largest city of Kharkiv without proper planning and coordination, Russia turned its attention to the Donbas, a region of mines and factories where Moscow-backed separatists are fighting. Ukrainian forces since 2014..
Learning from its first steps in error, Russia is walking more carefully there, relying on long-range bombing to soften Ukraine’s defenses.
It seems to be working: the best-equipped Russian forces have made gains in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that make up the Donbas, controlling more than 95% of the former and about half of the latter.
Ukraine is losing between 100 and 200 troops a day, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told the BBC, as Russia has “thrown practically everything that is not nuclear at the front”.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov described the fighting situation as “extremely difficult”, referring to a former sacrifice deity, saying: “The Russian Moloch has many means to devour human lives to satisfy his ego. imperial “.
Ukraine is losing between 100 and 200 service personnel every day, the government said. (Getty)
When the war went bad for Russia, many thought that President Vladimir Putin could claim victory after some gains in the Donbas and then emerge from a conflict that has severely affected the economy and stretched its resources. But the Kremlin has made it clear that it expects Ukraine to recognize all the gains Russia has made, including its annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, which Kyiv has ruled out.
Russian forces control the entire coast of the Sea of Azov, including the strategic port of Mariupol, the entire Kherson region – a key gateway to Crimea – and much of the Zaporizhzhia region that could help push deeper into Ukraine. Few expect Putin to stop.
Last week, he drew parallels between the Ukrainian war and the 18th-century wars with Sweden that Peter the Great did “to reclaim and consolidate” Russia’s historic lands, Putin said. Moscow has long regarded Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence.
Unlike previous battlefield failures, Russia seems to be using more conservative tactics now. Many had expected him to try to encircle Ukrainian forces with a massive movement of tweezers, but instead he has used smaller movements to force a withdrawal from Ukraine and not over-extend its supply lines.
Keir Giles, an expert on Russia from the Chatham House think tank in London, said Russia was “concentrating all its artillery on a single section of the front line in order to advance by flattening everything in its path.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged to reclaim Russian historic territory. (AP)
Russian forces bombed residential blocks, a hotel and a medical center on Sunday afternoon in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Firefighters extinguished the flames of the bombing, which injured three people.
Western officials still praise the ability of Ukrainian forces to defend their country, fighting fiercely, relying on artillery and retreating in some sections while launching frequent counterattacks.
“Ukraine has pursued a flexible defense policy, ceding ground where it makes sense to do so instead of holding on to every inch of territory,” Giles said.
A senior Western official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive issue in public said the Russian campaign “remains deeply concerned at all levels,” and noted that Moscow forces are taking “weeks to get even modest.” tactical goals such as taking individual peoples “.
Last month, the Russians lost almost an entire battalion in a failed attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and build a bridgehead. Hundreds were killed and dozens of armored vehicles were destroyed.
“There’s a sense of strategic improvisation or confusion,” the official said.
Western nations, including Australia, are providing heavy artillery such as the 155 mm M777 light towed shells in Ukraine. (AP)
Russia has a clear advantage in artillery at the Battle of Donbas, thanks to a larger number of heavy shells and rocket launchers and abundant ammunition. The Ukrainians have had to be economical in using their artillery, with the Russians constantly pointing to their supply lines.
Ukraine has begun receiving more heavy weapons from Western allies, who have provided dozens of shells and now plans to start delivering multiple rocket launchers.
Putin has warned that if the West were to launch more powerful rockets into Kyiv that could hit Russian territory, Moscow could hit targets in Ukraine that it had so far saved. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said Russia could respond by seizing more land as a buffer zone.
Moscow’s first territorial gains in the south, including the Kherson region and much of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region, have prompted Russian officials and their local appointees to try to apply these areas to Russia or declare them independent. such as the so-called “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Ukrainian officials and Western analysts have expressed concern that Moscow could try to press its offensive on the densely populated and industrialized Dnipro region further north, which could cut Ukraine in two and pose a new threat to Ukraine. Kyiv.
Ukrainian soldiers dig a trench at the front in the eastern Donetsk region. (AP)
“Russia’s goals in the context of this war are changing in relation to the situation on the ground,” said Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, an analyst at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, based in Milan. He noted that Russia could try to further damage the Ukrainian economy by seizing its entire coastline by denying access to maritime transport.
A senior Russian general has already spoken of plans to cut Ukraine off the Black Sea by seizing the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions as far as the border with Romania, a move that would also allow Moscow to build a land corridor to Moldova’s separatist region. . Transnistria hosting a Russian military base.
All these ambitions depend on the success of Moscow in the east. A defeat at the Donbas would put Kyiv in a precarious position, with new recruits without the skills of battle-hardened soldiers now fighting in the east and insufficient Western arms supplies to prevent a potentially deeper Russian push.
Ukrainian officials allayed those fears, expressing confidence that their army can hold out to curb Russian advances and even launch a counterattack.
“Ukraine’s plan is clear: Kyiv is eroding the Russian army, trying to gain time for more Western arms deliveries, including air defense systems, in hopes of launching an effective counteroffensive,” he said. Mykola Sunhurovsky analyst at the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based think tank.
Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general who was NATO’s top commander between 2013 and 2016, warned against any ceasefire, saying he would only codify the gains of Russia’s battlefield.
“That’s like raising a two-year-old,” he said. “If you let the bad behavior go on, or worse if you let go of the bad behavior, you’ll get worse.”
When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Washington’s response was inadequate, and so was its response when Moscow seized Crimea in 2014, he said.
Now that Russia is back for more, the West has another chance to respond.
Children receive classes in explosives in Ukraine
“How we end this war will decide, in my opinion, whether we will see more of this in the future,” he added.