The International Space Station, October 4, 2018. FULL/Reuters
Russia will retire from the International Space Station after 2024 and focus on building its own orbiting outpost, the country’s new space chief said on Tuesday amid high tensions between Moscow and the West over fighting in Ukraine.
The announcement, while not unexpected, calls into question the future of the 24-year-old space station, with experts saying it would be extremely difficult – a “nightmare”, according to some calculations – to keep it running without the Russians. NASA and its partners hoped to continue operating it until 2030.
“The decision to leave the station after 2024 has been made,” Yuri Borisov, appointed this month to head Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, said during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. He added: “I think at that time we will begin to form a Russian orbital station.”
The space station has long been a symbol of post-Cold War international teamwork in the name of science, but it is now one of the last areas of cooperation between the US and the Kremlin.
NASA had no immediate comment.
Borisov’s statement reaffirmed earlier statements by Russian space officials about Moscow’s intention to abandon the space station after 2024, when current international agreements for its operation end.
Russian officials have long spoken of their desire to launch the country’s own space station and have complained that wear and tear on the aging International Space Station is compromising safety and could make it difficult to extend its useful life.
Cost may also be a factor: With Elon Musk’s company SpaceX now flying NASA astronauts to and from the space station, the Russian Space Agency lost a major source of revenue. For years, NASA had been paying tens of millions of dollars per seat for trips to and from the station aboard Russian Soyuz rockets.
The Russian announcement is sure to fuel speculation that it is part of Moscow’s maneuvering to get relief from Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine. Borisov’s predecessor, Dmitri Rogozin, said last month that Moscow could participate in negotiations on a possible expansion of the station’s operations only if the US lifts sanctions against Russian space industries.
The space station is jointly run by Russia, the US, Europe, Japan and Canada. The first piece was put into orbit in 1998, and the outpost has been continuously inhabited for nearly 22 years. It is used to conduct scientific research in zero gravity and test technology for future trips to the Moon and Mars.
It typically has a crew of seven, who spend months at a time aboard the station as it orbits about 420 kilometers above Earth. Three Russians, three Americans and one Italian are now on board.
The more than $100 billion complex, which is about the length of a football field, consists of two main sections, one run by Russia, the other by the United States and the other countries. It was not immediately clear what will need to be done on the Russian side of the complex to continue safely operating the space station after Moscow withdraws.
Former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly, who spent 340 continuous days aboard the International Space Station in 2015 and 2016, said the Russian statement “could be more forceful,” noting that “after the 2024” is vague and open.
“I think Russia will stay as long as they can afford it, since without the ISS they have no human spaceflight program,” he said. “Cooperation with the West also shows some legitimacy to other non-aligned nations and to his own people, which Putin needs because the war in Ukraine has damaged his credibility.”
Former Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield tweeted in reaction to the announcement: “Remember Russia’s best game is chess.”
Kelly said the design of the station would make it difficult, but not impossible, for the remaining nations to operate it if Russia were to withdraw.
Jordan Bimm, a historian of science, technology and medicine at the University of Chicago, said the Russian statement “does not bode well for the future of the ISS,” adding that it “creates a constellation of uncertainties about the maintenance of the station that do not” I do not have easy answers”.
“What will ‘leaving’ be like?” he asked. “Will the last cosmonauts simply undock a Soyuz and return to Earth, leaving the Russian-built modules attached? Will they render them inoperable before they leave? Will NASA and its international partners have to negotiate to buy them and continue using them? Until and all these modules can be maintained without Russian knowledge?
Bimm said it’s theoretically possible to keep the station operational after the Russian rescue, but “it could practically be a nightmare depending on how Russia wanted to do it for NASA and its remaining partners.”
If the station’s Russian components were separated or inoperable, the most immediate problem would be how to periodically boost the complex to maintain its orbit, he said. Russian spacecraft arriving at the station with cargo and crew members are used to help align the station and raise its orbit.
Scott Pace, director of George Washington University’s space policy institute, said other considerations include replacing ground communications provided by Moscow.
He also said that “it remains to be seen whether the Russians will, in fact, be able to launch and maintain theirs. independent station.”
Russia has made no visible effort so far to develop its own space station, and the task looks increasingly daunting now amid the crisis in Ukraine and Western sanctions that have limited Russia’s access to Western technology.
Long before the development of the International Space Station, the Soviets, and then the Russians, had several space stations of their own, including Mir. The US also had Skylab.
John Logsdon, founder and former director of the George Washington University Institute, said NASA has had plenty of time to prepare for Russia’s withdrawal, given the threats emanating from Moscow, and that it would his duty if he hadn’t been thinking. about it for several years.
“An alternative is to declare victory with the station and use that as an excuse to deorbit it and put the money into exploration,” he said, adding: “Its political value has clearly diminished over time.”
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