Professor Jon Tonge has faced relentless taunts since he was hailed as the “Mystic Meg of Political Science” for accurately predicting Monday’s vote of confidence in Boris Johnson.
When he attended a conference in Belfast on Thursday, an academic colleague said that “the fortune teller has just come in.” And his little daughter asked him, “If you can see things, how come you can’t say you’re a complete loser?”
When he predicted that Johnson would leave in six months’ time, he faced a barrage of hostile comments on the Daily Mail’s website, such as “burning him at the stake.” But Tonge, who teaches British politics at the University of Liverpool, is undiscovered: “One of the commentators said he was a fake Nostradamus. I’m tempted to put it in my Twitter biography.”
He is now willing to risk further mockery with more political predictions. His predictions include many warnings. “There are all sorts of hostages to fortune here,” he warns, adding, “I’m John Curtice from a poor man,” referring to the veteran pollster.
But Tonge, who has accounts with three bookmakers, says he has won more than he has lost in political betting. Her winnings include £ 1,200 in the Northern Ireland election in 2017 and £ 600 in an early bet for Boris Johnson to succeed Theresa May. Therefore, the following predictions may be worthwhile:
Wakefield by-election 🔮
“Labor is absolutely certain that they will win because they only need a 4% swing from the Conservatives. Labor will win by between 8,000 and 10,000 votes. It was a constituency that was in effect ceded to the Conservatives because of Brexit. the only thing that could reduce the size of the Labor majority is low turnout. “
Tiverton and Honiton by-elections 🔮
“This is more difficult to predict as the Conservatives got 60% of the vote. But it has come close a couple of times and I would expect the Liberal Democrats to win it. It needs a 23% swing for that to happen in Chesham and Amersham. “There was a 25% swing. Humor music has probably gotten worse since then, so I think the Lib Dems will win by about 2,000 votes.”
The next Conservative leader 🔮
“A few weeks ago, Rishi Sunak would have said no doubt. And while his wife’s non-dom status has not helped, I still think it’s between Sunak and Liz Truss, with Ben Wallace at 20-1. It won’t be Jeremy Hunt.
“It simply came to our notice then. Conservative leadership contests can lead to considerable surprises.
“As Chancellor, Sunak has to deal with a troubled economy. And Truss, as Secretary of State, has the horrible poison chalice of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
“These issues could be useful to one or both. If they can handle their inboxes, they’re Prime Minister’s stuff. If they pushed me, I’d say Truss will get it. If he gets to the polls, he’s the favorite among the members “.
Next Labor leader 🔮
“There will be no vacancy. I would be very surprised if Keir Starmer was fined by Durham police.
“But if he had resigned, I think it would have been between Andy Burnham and Lisa Nandy. When he was elected mayor of Manchester, he won in places like the leafy Cheshire and Hale to be able to connect.
“For a party committed to equality it is absolutely a farce that they have never found a woman to lead them and Nandy has a very clear idea of how Labor can reclaim these northern seats.
“Burnham would get over it with Nandy, but only. And Wes Streeting would come back a little bit.”
Upcoming Chancellor and Remodeling 🔮
“There are four possibilities for the next chancellor. And if I had to classify them I would be: Sajid Javid again; Kwasi Kwarteng; Steve Barclay; Michael Gove. But I wouldn’t bet on that. Javid is a man who likes the position the most. “Kwarteng is capable and a good communicator. Barclay is sure. I don’t know where Gove goes next, he’s idiosyncratic and unpredictable.”
“I don’t see any brutal purge of the cabinet because Johnson doesn’t do it brutally. People have said Priti Patel will move, but I don’t really see it. Making Sunak Secretary of Foreign Affairs would be his next logical job.”
Upcoming general election 🔮
“It’s almost impossible to predict at this stage. It depends on so many things, especially the economy. I don’t think any party gets a total majority.
“I have the Conservatives with 301 seats. Labor will win about 50 to put them at 262. The Scottish National Party will go from 48 to 45. There will be 18 for the Northern Ireland parties. Plaid Cymru will get five seats, and the Greens one. This puts the Lib Dems in 18 seats. I’m a little nervous about this Lib Dem figure, but I’ll stick with it. There have been so many fake Lib Dem dawns.
“It simply came to our notice then that the Conservatives would form a government because they had no friends. Therefore, it will be a coalition led by Starmer. Expect all “chaos coalition” things to be thrown back at Labor. “