Until Friday, Australian and Chinese ministers had not had the opportunity to meet informally simply to be in the same room. Zoom diplomacy does not replace reality.
Marles described it as a “full and frank debate” that included China’s interception of an Australian Air Force plane in May, Beijing’s plans for the Pacific and the trade relationship between the two countries.
Dialogue is a positive step, but the road back to normal remains treacherous. Two Australians, Yang Hengjun and Cheng Lei, are still being held in Chinese prisons on false charges related to national security. Australian exporters of wine, seafood, barley and beef have been out of their largest market for two years. And China remains impervious to criticism of its human rights record in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, where political oppression is rooted in the guise of “internal affairs.”
Australia is also struggling with its own inconsistent foreign investment rules that helped stop a Chinese takeover of Lion Dairy, its prolific use of anti-dumping measures that have long frustrated Chinese exporters and an imminent review of the lease of the port of Darwin for reasons of national security. . None of these will be easy to navigate.
But at least now a communication channel has been opened.
Any optimism should also be tempered by Wei’s status in Beijing’s overall political structure. Wei is a minister of the Council of State – in charge of public affairs of the Ministry of Defense – but is surpassed by the two vice presidents of the Central Military Commission. He is not on the Standing Committee of the Politburo, China’s highest-ranking cabinet, nor does he control the defense department like Marles, who is also Australia’s deputy prime minister. Wei is not in the inner circle, but his meeting with Marles could not have been signed without Beijing’s highest level of approval.
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On Saturday, Wei delivered a speech that gave no ground on the future of Taiwan and accused the US of fueling the war in Ukraine, while offering an idyllic view of peace, respect and non-interference for all. the countries of the world.
At the same time, China is militarizing islands in the South China Sea, establishing the power of the force over its infrastructure assets in the Solomon Islands and doing what Wei described as “good progress” in its program. of nuclear weapons.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that Chinese military officials have repeatedly stated during meetings with their U.S. counterparts in recent months that the Taiwan Strait is not in international waters. It is an ominous omen that increases the potential for intentional or accidental conflict in one of the most contested areas in the world and now gives China the coverage it needs to claim that it warned America and its allies.
The facts of China are clearly more important than his words. For Australia, this means that Marles and Albanese will continue to focus on easing trade sanctions as one of the few tangible measures that could indicate a new direction for Canberra and Beijing.
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Measures will have to be lifted if the relationship is to be healed beyond the symbolic but empty gestures of its ministers.
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