Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) had a message for her Democratic colleagues before flying home to Arizona for the weekend: She’s keeping her options open.
Why it matters: Sinema has power and knows it. Any potential changes to the Democrat’s climate and deficit-reduction package, such as removing the $14 billion provision for carried interest, could cause the fragile deal to collapse.
- Her stance is causing something between angst and fear in the Democratic caucus as senators wait for her to deliver a verdict on the secret deal announced by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin last Thursday.
Leading the story: Sinema has given no assurances to his colleagues that he will vote along party lines in a so-called “vote-a-rama” for the $740 billion bill next week, according to people familiar with the matter
- The branch voting process allows lawmakers to offer an unlimited number of amendments, as long as they are relevant to the Senate parliamentarian. Senators and journalists wait for an afternoon.
- Republicans, mad that Democrats have a chance to send a $280 billion China competition package and a massive climate and health care bill to President Biden, will use the vote-a-rama to force the Democrats vulnerable to taking politically difficult votes.
- They will also try to kill the reconciliation package with poison pills, amendments that make it impossible for Schumer to find 50 votes for final approval.
The intrigue: Not only is Sinema signaling she’s open to letting Republicans tweak the bill, she’s given no assurances she’ll support a final “supplementary” amendment that would restore the original Schumer-Manchin deal .
The big picture: Schumer made the calculated decision to negotiate a package with Manchin in secret. He assumed all his other members, including Sinema, would be on board and support the deal.
- Now his caucus is digesting the details, with Sinema bringing a printout of the 725-page bill to Arizona on Friday for a dense in-flight reading.
- Schumer will find out this week if her bid to keep Sinema in the dark will pay off.
What we’re seeing: While Sinema supported the 15% minimum book tax in December, which would raise more than $300 billion, Schumer never bothered to check whether his position had changed given the economic outlook darkened
- Schumer and Manchin also inserted language about interest being taxed as regular income, which would raise roughly $14 billion, knowing full well that Sinema never agreed to it. That move blindsided Sinema.
The intrigue: While Schumer and Manchin have a well-documented and tumultuous relationship, replete with private Italian dinners to mend fences, Schumer and Sinema don’t regularly engage.
Flashback: The Schumer-Sinema relationship took a big hit in February when Schumer refused to endorse Sinema for re-election in 2024 when asked directly by CNN.
- He did not attend his party’s caucus meeting on Thursday.
Between the lines: Sinema and Manchin always agreed that President Biden’s initial $3.5 billion plan needed to be scaled back to rebuild better.
- They are also on the same page about the need to act against climate change.
- If Manchin has been primarily concerned with inflation, his guiding principles have always been economic growth and new jobs in Arizona.
Bottom line: Sinema isn’t too happy with how Schumer has pushed this package on her. She reserves the right to modify it.
- But he also knows that a progressive challenger, like Rep. Rueben Gallego, is all but guaranteed in 2024 if he takes responsibility for killing Democrats’ best shot at a climate bill in years.
Editor’s note: This version corrects the date of the caucus meeting.