When Australia’s electricity crisis began to escalate earlier this month, Snowy Hydro was asked to increase production.
But the hydroelectric generator is still significantly limited by one surprising problem: too much water.
It is just one example of how extreme weather has deepened man-made power crises in the nation.
Snowy Hydro’s largest power plant is Tumut 3. At full power, it can generate 1,800 megawatts of electricity.
This is as much as a large coal-fired power plant, but with zero emissions.
The huge volumes of water used by Tumut 3 are pumped back up the hill to an upper reservoir or emptied into Blowering Dam.
Tumut 3 is the largest hydroelectric power plant in Australia.
The problem according to Snowy Hydro is that Blowering Dam is full, after consecutive years of rain La Niña, and the increase in hydroelectric generation is at risk of flooding, according to an alert published by Snowy Hydro on June 3.
“There is an energy crisis in the National Electricity Market (NEM) that is unfolding and Snowy Hydro is being called upon more than ever to keep the lights on,” the post on the Snowy Hydro website said.
“The generation of the Tumut 3 power plant is significantly limited by the current levels of storage in the Blowering Reservoir and the release capacity of the Tumut River.
“In order to meet the energy demands expected in the coming days, the Blowering Reservoir may be filled and spilled, potentially exceeding the capacity of the Tumut River Canal.
“In this scenario, there is potential for flooding of low-level roads and water flowing from the river channel to agricultural land adjacent to the river.”
Blowering Dam contains three times as much water as Sydney Harbor, but is close to its capacity. (ABC News: Alexandra Beech)
Snowy Hydro does not own or operate Blowering Dam. It is managed by WaterNSW, which has been releasing water for months to reduce dam levels, while trying to avoid flooding people downstream.
Over the past 12 months, La Niña’s weather pattern has generated about three and a half influxes from Sydney’s ports to Blowering Dam, far more than the total capacity of the reservoir, according to WaterNSW.
Last week, the dam manager warned homeowners that in the coming days or weeks, flooding may be impossible to prevent.
“With the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) predicting a higher probability of wet weather ahead, the capture of the already saturated dam and storage also receiving upstream electricity generation flows, a future spill cannot be ruled out” , WaterNSW wrote in a press release.
The rains of La Niña hit the coal miners
Last Thursday, New South Wales Treasurer and Energy Minister Matt Kean was given emergency powers to run coal companies to supply fuel to electricity generators.
The need for such a drastic intervention was established by train months earlier, as record rains driven by La Niña wreaked havoc on coal mines on Australia’s east coast.
The pits were flooded and the railroads were disrupted.
Floods in the coal-rich regions of New South Wales this year have affected the supply to power plants. (Provided by: David Mclean)
The Port Kembla coal terminal even declared a major force due to the rains.
That is, he could no longer fulfill his obligations because of an extraordinary act beyond his control.
“It disrupted all open pit mines, especially those in the Hunter Valley,” coal producer Yancoal wrote in its quarterly report.
The timing could not have been worse for the miners. Coal prices were soaring, and miners could not meet demand due to the wild climate.
Coal production and exports were affected by record rainfall in 2022. (AAP: Daren Pateman)
“Coal prices were, say, 400 to 500 percent above the previous year’s levels, but at the same time coal exports fell,” said David Leitch, an electricity industry analyst. of ITK consulting.
But La Niña didn’t just hit Australia.
The rains caused by La Niña also wreaked havoc on the world’s largest coal exporter, Indonesia.
Indonesia began to have trouble meeting demand and the price of coal rose further.
Heavy rains over the past 12 months have affected Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter. (Provided by: Wikipedia)
In addition, a heat wave hit India in April, causing an electricity crisis there, further fueling coal prices, without taking into account either the war in Ukraine or the demand for oil. China.
A heat wave in India caused even more demand for coal. (AP: Manish Swarup)
In a world where there are so many things connected, this affected the national coal supply.
“All of this created an incentive for coal miners in Australia who had coal for export to effectively catch rail transport to bring coal to ports,” Leitch said.
It estimated that domestic coal sales in New South Wales have fallen by about a third in recent months, despite record prices.
On Friday, Energy Australia confirmed the coal shortage, writing that “deliveries to Mount Piper are below expected levels in 2022, with heavy reliance on our main supplier, the Springvale mine”.
With less coal to burn, the demand for expensive gas on the east coast grew by about 15 percent, according to Leitch.
A polar explosion
We were advancing rapidly until June, and a stubborn, high-pressure locking system was installed south of the Nullabor, directing glacial winds off the east coast of Australia.
Southeast Australia has suffered its coldest winter start in decades. (ABC News: Jordan Young)
When temperatures plummet, energy demand increases, according to electricity market operator AEMO.
It is such a reliable effect that AEMO calculates the “degree days of warm-up”, that is, how much extra power will be needed depending on how cold the forecast is.
If it is less than 17 degrees Celsius in New South Wales or Queensland, energy consumption increases.
They are a tougher or more isolated group in Tasmania: their benchmark is 16C.
On June 7, the entire East Coast grid saw its highest electricity demand in more than a decade, according to electricity analyst and commentator Paul McArdle.
On June 9, Brisbane woke up to the coldest morning in six years. That night, Queensland set a new winter record for energy consumption.
However, Leitch warns not to blame too much of the crisis on the cold weather.
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“It has only had a really moderate impact in my opinion. Demand in Queensland is really only a couple per cent over what it was last year for the last 30 days as a whole,” he said.
Less solar in winter
He said the cold waves were starting to catch up with the heat waves in the energy shortage.
“Australian electricity demand is very seasonal,” Leitch said.
“It’s peaking around January, and it’s peaking around July in winter, when energy demand for residential heating sources is rising in Victoria and New South Wales and South Australia. in particular “.
However, the rising and rising solar power on the roofs has been further attenuating the peak of summer as people power their air conditioners during the day from their solar panels.
The average solar generation in recent weeks has been about half that generated in the summer. (Reuters: Tim Wimborne)
“But in winter, there is much less solar energy. And so the demand goes back to the suppliers of thermal energy, coal and gas. And when we have breakdowns in the plant, that’s what causes the problem,” he said. dir Leitch.
The average solar generation in recent weeks has been about half that generated in the summer, according to the OpenNEM national electricity market data platform.
This graph shows how solar energy helps with demand during the summer months. (Provided by: OpenNEM)
“For some years now, I have been predicting that previous energy crises will occur in the summer, when the heat would cause coal generators to break down and transmission lines to fall and demand would be very high in a wave of heat, “Leitch said.
“But as we get more solar, the summer problems get smaller. But the winter problems get worse because we get a lot less wind and solar.”
As the temperatures dropped, the wind blew
As the market began to melt in the face of tight supply and demand, wind power offered a bright spot.
On June 14, both South Australia and Victoria set new wind power records.
New wind power generation records were set this month in Victoria and South Australia. (Provided by: WestWind Energy)
“It’s not uncommon for wind generation to exceed 5 gigawatts, but in the last seven days, and in fact the last three weeks, we’ve seen wind generation far exceed that level,” said David Osmond, chief engineer of the Windlab wind company. .
He said that since early June, wind power totals had been more than 40 percent above average.
Wind power generation has been about 40% above average in recent weeks. (Provided by: OpenNEM)