Authorities and farmers in Queensland are bracing for a wet spring after a “nightmare” winter of rain and flooding.
Key points:
- The Indian Ocean Dipole is in a ‘negative’ phase for the second consecutive year
- Wet conditions delayed the planting of crops during the winter
- Authorities have begun preparations in case of further dam spills
The Met Office this week declared the Indian Ocean Dipole to be “negative”, which would normally mean wetter than normal winter and spring weather across much of southern and eastern Australia
The bureau said there was also a chance La Nina could re-form a third time during the spring.
Condamine farmer Jake Hamilton said he was mildly concerned about the forecast after an “absolute nightmare” winter of muddy meadows on his south Queensland property.
Hamilton said it had received more than 150 millimeters of rain in May, severely delaying crop planting.
“We’ve had a 75-ton strap strapped to the front of our planting tractor for the past three months, and it’s certainly seen a lot of use,” Hamilton said.
“We’ve been bogging down machines left, right and centre, whether it’s tractors or sprayers, just trying to get through the mud.
“I don’t think anyone in our area wants to go through a crop as wet as the planting we just had.”
Tractors have bogged down in wet paddocks. (Provided by Jake Hamilton)
Hamilton said the season overall had been as good as farmers would have hoped.
But he said if the forecast for a wet spring came to pass, it could exacerbate problems with plant diseases.
He said that, combined with a shortage of fungicides, could lead to significant crop losses.
“But at the end of the day, it’s just a forecast,” Hamilton said.
“We’ve had La Nina years where we’ve had little or no rain, so we can just keep an eye on the short range and see what happens.
“But at least we’re getting ready for it to be pretty wet.”
Jake Hamilton says he’s slightly worried about the forecast for a wet spring.
The authorities are preparing
Authorities have also begun preparations for a wet spring, with floods in Queensland this year already claiming more than 20 lives.
Dam operator Sunwater said 11 of its 19 Queensland reservoirs were at or near capacity.
Warwick’s Leslie Dam is one of 11 dams at full capacity. (Contributed by Chris McFerran)
Sunwater’s executive general manager of operations, Colin Bendall, said communities needed to be vigilant if more rain arrived in the early spring or summer.
“Some of the preparations we’ve been doing is we do exercises with local disaster management groups and the Bureau of Meteorology,” Bendall said.
He said staff were also being trained in the use of emergency action plans in the event of further dam spills.
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wet summer
University of Southern Queensland climatologist Chelsea Jarvis said there was a 65 to 80 per cent chance regions such as the Darling Downs would exceed their average rainfall.
He said scientists will continue to monitor the situation to see if the Indian Ocean dipole strengthens towards the end of the year.
“The end of this Indian Ocean Dipole event, whether it’s October or December, can also determine the likelihood of rain coming into the summer,” Jarvis said.
“The second thing I’d like to look at is what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean with this La Nina event, it’s kind of hanging out.”
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