Southern Ontario has experienced a remarkable period of dry weather for mid-summer, with precipitation readings well below what you would expect for that point in July. We expect rainy weather to reduce these deficits on Sunday and Monday. A sticky period of heat and humidity will also build up as we head into the week. Learn more about storm risk and crazy weather ahead, below.
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Sunday: Heat increases, storm threat increases in the southwest
The ridge that has brought toasty temperatures to the prairies over the past few days will begin to slide eastward to end the weekend, allowing temperatures to rise in much of Ontario on Sunday.
Daytime highs will approach the 30-degree mark for people in rural and eastern Ontario, with Ottawa and Sudbury well on track to reach that mark on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler in southern Ontario as clouds and storms approach from the southwest.
An elongated cold front stretching from the eastern prairies to northwestern Ontario will continue to cause widespread storms widespread on Sunday in the latter region, where storms could become severe.
As for the south, the risk of storms will widen in southwestern Ontario later Sunday afternoon and evening when a warm front approaches the region from the United States. The best opportunity for storms will stretch from Windsor to London, with the coasts of Huron and the Niagara region potentially entering some thunder in the evening.
Storms should be kept below severe limits, but some strong winds and rapid showers are possible.
Monday: Constant rain, thunder rumors for the morning trip
The same disturbance responsible for the potential for Sunday storms in southwestern Ontario will cause a solid batch of rain to cross parts of southern Ontario on Monday morning.
The rain will spread along the north shores of Lake Erie before sunrise and will enter the Niagara region and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in time for the Monday morning commute.
It will be a constant and much needed rain for an area that has not seen much rain in recent weeks. Be careful of slippery roads as you start the day and don’t be surprised if there is a thunderous noise.
Rain is expected to be reduced late in the morning at the GTA, and will enter eastern Ontario and the national capital region at lunchtime.
The northern Ontario boundary will continue to advance east Monday, with the threat of heavy afternoon storms for areas stretching from Kenora to Timmins and central Quebec.
There is a possibility that storms will reach severe limits in the latter region, which extend into southern Quebec, with the possibility of strong winds, small hail and heavy rainfall with anyone meeting the warning criteria.
Clouds and rain will help keep temperatures cooler again for Monday, with most areas only rising between mid and 20 degrees at most in the afternoon.
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Next week: Heat and humidity are growing in southern Ontario
Heat and humidity will make a triumphant return to southern Ontario on Tuesday. Temperatures will exceed the 30-degree mark for much of the GTA, with high humidity that will make things feel more like the top 30 degrees.
As we head out on Tuesday, a cold front has the potential to change direction and sink into sections in the south of the province. This will pose the threat of more rain and storms, especially in southern Ontario, where some areas have only seen less than a quarter of their normal monthly rainfall.
The boggy heat will also remain through Wednesday, with high humidity that will send humidex values back to the top 30 during the afternoon hours.
We can expect warm temperatures to remain throughout the rest of the week until the weekend. Daily highs will be fixed for up to 20 years, which is above Toronto’s maximum seasonal temperature of about 25 ° C during the third week of July.
Miniature courtesy of Kelly, made in Stoney Creek, Ont.
Stay tuned for The Weather Network to find out the latest conditions in Ontario.