All weather data points to a line of severe thunderstorms moving into southwest and west-central Lower Michigan by late evening. Here is a timeline and location of the possible line of storms.
Here’s the radar forecast from 6pm tonight through 10am Sunday. The first line of storms coming into Michigan from Muskegon south to the Indiana state line is the line of storms that could produce severe weather.
Radar forecast for 6pm on Saturday 23rd July to 10am on Sunday 24th July.
The line of storms should weaken as it moves across southern Lower Michigan, but will remain as vigorous thunderstorms through Lansing, Jackson and perhaps into Ann Arbor and Detroit.
Note the second largest area of rain and storms after the severe weather line. The second zone has widespread rain that offers a good chance of useful rain for much of the southern half of Lower Michigan.
The severe thunderstorm watch is from 9:00 PM to 10:00 PM along the Lake Michigan coast. Lines of severe storms move quickly. Expect the line of storms to reach the Ann Arbor and Detroit areas by midnight.
The main threat is a 60 mph to 70 mph fast wind gust at the start of the storms. As the storms move inland toward Kalamazoo, Lansing and Jackson, severe gusts will likely diminish.
Here’s a breakdown of what the Storm Prediction Center says the chances are for each type of severe weather.
Outline of where the highest chances of severe weather are located this afternoon.
Damaging wind gust forecast for this afternoon. The black hatched area is where the wind gusts should be strongest.
Chance of tornadoes forecast for this afternoon.
Large hail forecast for this afternoon. The hatched black area has a two-inch hail chance.
Here’s the always-updated radar so you can know when storms are approaching your area.
If your location is under a severe thunderstorm warning, move away from your windows when the storm moves past your location.