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A strong high-pressure ridge on Sunday provides a lot of hot, unstable storm energy to the eastern prairies, as temperatures reach the mid-30s and humidex values stand at 40 in southern Manitoba. A low will act as a catalyst for the development of severe storms, with the potential for supercells and even one or two tornadoes in areas near the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border in the afternoon. The risk of bad weather returns on Monday. Learn more about the storm threats on Sunday and Monday and the heat it will be, below.
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SUNDAY: MEETING, THREAT OF TORNADO IN THE MIDDLE OF EXTREME HEAT
Sunday will be hot, and possibly stormy, in the Prades thanks to the heat and humidity, as well as other ingredients in place.
Storm potential is pushing further east in southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario, as the low-pressure system continues to move in that direction.
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There will likely be some storms on Sunday morning in southern Saskatchewan, along with Manitoba. Residual cloudiness and morning convection could alter the risk on Sunday afternoon.
A low-pressure system will activate strong storm potential throughout Sunday afternoon in parts of southeastern Alberta, but most will focus on southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.
These regions are likely to see severe storms, including the threat of supercells and storm lines. As a result, there is a risk of one or two tornadoes near the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border in the late afternoon until early evening.
Other possible dangers with severe storms include strong wind gusts, heavy hail and heavy rain.
GENERAL HEAT WARNINGS IN FORCE ON SUNDAY
In addition to the threat of Sunday’s storm, high heat and tropical humidity will continue in the far south of Saskatchewan and much of Manitoba. Daily temperature records and hazardous humidex values are likely for the latter.
Southern Manitoba will have an average heat of 30 ° C on Sunday, as a heat dome in the southern United States will climb the northern part of the ridge toward the prairies. Humidex values will be in the mid-1940s.
Heat warnings are in effect in Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, along with special weather statements. “Extreme heat is affecting everyone,” says Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
“The risks are greater for young children, pregnant women, the elderly, people with chronic illnesses and people who work or exercise outdoors. Monitor the effects of heat illness: bloating, rashes , cramps, fainting, heat exhaustion, heat stroke and worsening of some health conditions Drink plenty of water even before you are thirsty and stay in a cool place Check out family, friends and older neighbors Make sure they are fresh and drink water. “
THIS WEEK: THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY STORM
Much cooler conditions are expected on Monday in Saskatchewan as the heat subsides. However, the intense heat remains in southeastern Manitoba.
In addition, the active pattern continues this week.
While we don’t expect a major or organized low pressure system like the one we saw earlier last week, next week we will see numerous rounds of widespread showers and storms, including a higher risk of locally strong to severe storms.
On Monday, the potential for storms will cover most of the prairies, but the threat of bad weather will cover areas of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as well as northwestern Ontario. The strong storms that develop will be scattered, but they could bring strong gusts of wind, heavy hail and heavy rains.
The rain will be very beneficial to replenish the groundwater in the western areas that were suffering from a drought, but we will also be aware of the risk of more localized flooding.
Miniature courtesy of Diana Cyncora, taken in Oakbank, Man.
Be sure to check back for updates this weekend as we continue to fine-tune the forecast details on the timing and severity of the storm.