BEIJING (AP) – Taiwan’s capital staged airstrike drills Monday and its military mobilized for routine defense exercises, coinciding with concerns about a heavy-handed Chinese response to a possible visit to the island by the Speaker of the United States House, Nancy Pelosi.
While there was no direct link between China’s renewed threats and Taiwan’s defensive moves, they underscore the possibility of a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait, considered a potential hot spot for conflict that could engulf the entire the region
Air raid sirens sounded in the capital Taipei as the military held its annual multi-day Han Kuang exercises, including joint air and sea exercises and the mobilization of tanks and troops.
In Taipei, police directed people to shelters when a siren sounded shortly after lunchtime. Empty streets and closed shops.
“In recent years, Chinese military aircraft have frequently harassed Taiwan and the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out in February this year,” Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je told reporters, referring to the concern that a similar conflict could break out in East Asia. “All these things make us understand the importance of being vigilant in times of peace and we must be prepared if there is war.”
Pelosi has not confirmed when, or even if, she will visit, but President Joe Biden told reporters last week that US military officials believed such a trip was “not a good idea.” Administration officials are believed to be critical of a potential trip, both because of the troubled timing and the lack of coordination with the White House.
The authoritarian ruling Communist Party of China considers democratic, self-governing Taiwan its own territory, which it will annex by force if necessary, and regularly announces this threat by holding military exercises and flying warplanes in the area Taiwan air defense identification or across the center line of the 180. -kilometer (100 miles) -wide Taiwan Strait.
Beijing says the actions are aimed at deterring advocates of the island’s formal independence and foreign allies, mainly the US, from interfering, more than 70 years after the sides split amid civil war. Polls consistently show that Taiwan’s 23 million people reject China’s claims that the island is a Chinese province that has gone astray and must come under Beijing’s control.
Pelosi, long a sharp critic of Beijing, is second in line in the White House. China sees her as a proxy for Biden, demanding that members of Congress follow through on commitments made by previous administrations.
Taiwan is one of the few issues that enjoys broad bipartisan support among lawmakers and within the administration, with Biden saying earlier this year that the US would defend Taiwan if it were attacked.
US law requires Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and treat all threats to the island as matters of “grave concern”, but remains ambiguous about whether it would commit forces in response to an attack from China
Although the sides have no formal diplomatic ties, the US is Taiwan’s main provider of foreign defense assistance and political support, reflecting its desire to limit China’s growing influence and maintain a strong American presence in the western pacific
During a visit to Indonesia on Sunday, US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Chinese military has become significantly more aggressive and dangerous over the past five years.
Milley’s Chinese counterpart, General Li Zuocheng, told him in a phone call earlier this month that Beijing had “no room for compromise” on issues such as Taiwan.
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Beijing had repeatedly expressed its “solemn stance” on a possible visit by Pelosi, who would be the highest-ranking US elected official to visit Taiwan. since 1997.
“We are fully prepared,” Zhao told reporters at a daily briefing. “If the US is determined to go its own way, China will take firm and forceful measures to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
China has not said what specific actions it would take, although speculation has centered on a new round of threatening military exercises or even an attempt to prevent Pelosi’s plane from landing by declaring a no-fly zone over Taiwan.
“If the US is determined to make (a visit), it knows that China will take unprecedented tough measures and the US must make military preparations,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Beijing’s Renmin University.
“Expect huffing and puffing, maybe some fire, military posturing and maybe economic punishment from Taiwan,” said Michael Mazza, a defense and China expert at the American Enterprise Institute.
The timing of a visit to Pelosi, which could happen in early August, is particularly sensitive, depending on multiple factors. Among them is the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army—the military arm of the ruling Communist Party—which falls on August 1, a date used to stoke nationalism and rally the troops.
Chinese leaders are also under pressure from hard-line nationalist forces within the party ranks.
This dates back to the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1995 and 1996, when China conducted drills and launched missiles into waters north and south of the island in response to a US visit by then-Pres. of the island, Lee Teng-hui. The United States responded by sending two aircraft carrier battle groups to the area, a move that helped spur China’s massive military modernization over the years that has radically shifted the balance of power in Asia.
Meanwhile, Xi is seeking a third five-year term as party leader at a congress later this year and must prove he is in charge amid a slowing economy and a public backlash against his policies.” zero-covid”.
Overall, the situation appears to be more dire than in 1995-96, said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program of the US German Marshall Fund.
“If the Chinese want to show their resolve, they have many ways to do it,” Glaser said.
China does not want to create a “crisis for crisis’ sake,” but could try to use the possibility of a Pelosi visit to advance its agenda, said Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on Chinese foreign policy and military affairs at the University of Stanford.
China could use the opportunity to test capabilities through a large-scale amphibious exercise, which it would justify as a response to an “aggressive move” by the US, Mastro said.
“So I think they’re going to use this as an opportunity to make advances that might be problematic, but (that) they wanted to make anyway regardless of Pelosi’s visit,” he said.
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Associated Press writer Huizhong Wu and videographer Johnson Lai contributed to this report from Taipei, Taiwan.