Apparent stasis interspersed with periods of rapid change, associated with great technological “revolutions”, triggered by new military technologies. The longest period without systematic change was during the nearly two millennia between the Iron / Cavalry Revolution and the Gunpowder Revolution. Although empires rose and fell during this period, the maximum areas of empires fluctuated around 3 million square kilometers. [Brown curve: average territory of the three largest polities. Tan shading: mean ± SD (note the logarithmic scale of the Y-axis)]. Credit: Seshat: Global History Database
During the last 10,000 years, the Holocene, human societies became larger and more complex. An international team of scientists led by Peter Turchin of the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) set out to test various theories about what drove this process. According to his analysis of data from Seshat: Global History Databank, the best explanation for the evolution of sociocultural complexity is a combination of increased agricultural productivity and the invention, or adoption, of military technologies (especially the invention of iron weapons). and cavalry in the first millennium BC). The study has just come out in the magazine Advances in Science.
Many theories have to be tested
“Over the years countless explanations have been offered to explain the incredible‘ Holocene transformation ’,” notes Peter Turchin. Some theorists, such as Jared Diamond, say that the transition to agriculture was the necessary and sufficient condition for the rise of complex societies. Other theories focus on theories of conflict, class struggle, the threat of external war, or functionalist explanations, for example, that complex social organization evolved to solve certain problems facing societies.
“All of these theories could cite historical examples that seemingly support their putative mechanisms; but none has ever been shown to be decisively more convincing than the others,” says Turchin, who leads a team that investigates social complexity and collapse in the CSH. Together with members of the Seshat: Global History Databank project, he applied the proven and true scientific method: determining what each body of theory proposes as key factors driving the increase in complexity and seeing which best explains the available empirical evidence . . The results reveal that many long-standing and influential theories receive little support from the data.
The plow and the sword guide human history
The best explanation of the observed patterns provides the framework for cultural evolution. “Essentially, the conflict between groups over territory and resources puts tremendous selective pressure on societies,” Turchin explains. It favored larger, more populated societies, which could store more information and communicate effectively over greater distances and which were able to mobilize more people for common projects such as advocating for and maintaining public infrastructure. “While previous theories contained some of these elements, for the first time a unique and consistent framework with the historical record has been provided and demonstrated,” says Turchin.
Scholars also identified several important “transformations” during the Holocene: after the invention of key technologies such as bronze and later iron smelting or cavalry warfare and associated tactics, the scale of larger societies went increase drastically before leveling to a relatively stable size. New innovations and cultural adaptations continued to build until further progress was made, pushing societies to new heights before stabilizing again, while the whole process began again.
Big Data reveals decisive patterns
“This article is the culmination of more than a decade of intense collaboration,” says Harvey Whitehouse, corresponding author of the paper and one of Seshat’s founding directors. “Our study used more than a hundred variables, meticulously coded, related to 373 societies that flourished between 9600 BC and 1900 AD With the help of these” big “data we can locate the theories of history world by head and see which ones win “.
Scientists see this study as a breakthrough in understanding how human societies have evolved since the first farmers were established thousands of years ago. In the future, the team will adopt similar methods to test the diverse group of ideas that have been proposed in other areas of research, such as the causes of social collapse or the role of religious ideology in evolution. cultural.
The ultimate goal, as Turchin says, is to “put to bed once and for all those influential ideas that do not support the empirical record.”
What drove the invention of military technologies? More information: Peter Turchin et al, Disentanglement the Evolutionary Drivers of Social Complexity: A Comprehensive Test of Hypotheses, Advances in Science (2022). DOI: 10.1126 / sciadv.abn3517. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn3517 Provided by Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Citation: Theories on socio-political evolution on trial (2022, June 24) retrieved June 25, 2022 from
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