A new national survey by The New York Times and Siena College published on Tuesday, along with some other recent developments, have made me reconsider this answer in black and white.
In the poll, Trump led a hypothetical 2024 GOP camp with 49%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 25%. No other potential candidate, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, received double-digit support.
In all, nearly half of those who said they plan to vote in the 2024 Republican primaries preferred a candidate other than Trump. (Sidebar: Joe Biden’s numbers on this question are even worse.)
And among those who voted for Trump in 2020 and had a “very” favorable opinion of each of the contenders, effectively a measure of the party’s grassroots passion, Trump (46%) and DeSantis (44%) had numbers almost identical. .
As the Times wrote about the numbers in the polls:
“The poll suggests that Mr. Trump would not necessarily enter primaries with an insurmountable advantage over rivals like Mr. DeSantis. His share of the Republican primary electorate is lower than Hillary Clinton had among Democrats. at the start of the 2016 race, when she was seen as the inevitable favorite, but was eventually wrapped up in extended primaries against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. “
I completely agree.
It is also worth considering two more things:
1. DeSantis ended May with more than $ 100 million in the bank for his run in the 2022 re-election, an impressive total for a governor running for another term. As Politico reported on Tuesday, DeSantis also recently held a meeting for major donors and government colleagues with whom it is close, a move that should be seen through a 2024.2 lens. A recent University of New Hampshire poll showed that DeSantis was 39% compared to Trump’s 37% in the state’s Republican primaries, a virtual dead heat that marked a major change from an October poll of 2021 in which Trump led DeSantis from 43% to 18%.
To be clear: if Trump shows up (and there is every reason to believe he will), he remains the favorite to be the Republican candidate.
But the race no longer seems like a step for Trump.
The point: There’s a reason Trump is starting to worry about getting into the 2024 race. He sees DeSantis getting it, and quickly.