Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is holding a rally in Scarborough, Ontario on May 29. Chris Young / The Canadian Press
We can confidently predict that the Liberal Party will improve its position in the Ontario Legislature after the June 2 election. But that may not save its leader, Steven Del Duca. And the party itself could have serious problems.
Let’s take a look at the electoral landscape of the last days of the campaign.
Almost everyone agrees that Doug Ford’s progressive Conservatives will form the next government. 338Canada.com, which weighs in and adds polls, had the Conservatives at 38 percent on Sunday. Philippe J. Fournier, who runs the post, plans a Conservative majority government of more than 80 seats.
Conservatives are likely to dominate 905, the suburban seating band surrounding Toronto, named after its area code. A virtual sweep of the 905 almost guarantees the victory of any party.
With 27 percent of the popular vote, the Liberals are ahead of the new Democrats, who have 23 percent. But the 338Canada projections have the NPD with 25 seats and the Liberals only 15, enough to get party status in the legislature, which they lost after the last election, but still a distant result in third place.
This is because the NDP vote tends to be concentrated in city centers and northern Ontario, while the Liberal vote is more evenly distributed. This makes things frustrating and tempting for liberals.
“The NDP vote is very efficient in the range of 20 to 25 percent. That’s why it can outperform the Liberals at this point,” Mr Fournier told me. “However, the NDP vote is very inefficient in 25-30%, unlike the Liberals. “
If the Liberals managed to gain a few more points in the popular vote, constituency-level vote distribution could start to work in their favor. They could steal a lot of seats in the PC, form the Official Opposition and maybe even deprive Conservative leader Doug Ford of a majority government.
But unless they can get that increase, the Liberals seem doomed to languish third in the seat count, again.
There is more worrying news for the Grits. Mr. Del Duca intends to enter the legislature through the 905 Vaughan – Woodbridge constituency, which he once held. But it was defeated in the previous election by 8,000 votes, and the projection of 338Canada has it as a launch.
Getting third in the bench count and losing his own ball can cost Mr. Of the Duke the leadership.
As this is Andrea Horwath’s fourth campaign as leader of the NPD, the two opposition parties could be replacing the leaders. If so, which party would be more likely to overthrow the Conservative Progressives could depend on which leader each party chooses.
For most of the province’s history, the Liberals have been one of the two ruling parties, along with the Progressive Conservatives. Most recently, they ruled for 15 years under Prime Ministers Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne.
But the NDP formed a government in 1990 under Bob Rae. It is currently the Official Opposition. After June 2, it could be the Official Opposition again. If so, anyone who wants to make a donation to the progressive political party most likely to overthrow the Conservatives would have good reason to send that money to the NPD instead of the Liberals.
This portrayal of liberal issues can be undeniably bleak. As my colleague Jeff Gray reports, the Liberal leader has done a good job of paying off party debt and establishing a solid platform. If the Grits regain party status, and if Mr. Del Duca finds a way to enter the legislature, he could continue to lead the party and that party could be reaffirmed as the alternative government to the PC.
But the strength of the Liberal Party, in any province or national, is also its weakness. It serves a broad coalition of voters, grouped on both sides of the political center and committed to a pragmatic, responsible and slightly progressive government.
But this coalition always runs the risk of evaporating, if voters decide they want a more emphatically progressive or more forcefully conservative alternative.
Whether with Mr. Del Duca or another, the Liberals need to get back in the game. Otherwise, voters may forget about them altogether.
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