On Monday this week, when Albanese told the caucus to plan at least two terms in government, Dutton told his troops that the plan was to limit Labor to just one.
The task will be huge. The Coalition has been reduced to 58 seats, meaning it needs a minimum of 18 more to regain power. The nationals retained all their seats in the election, which means that the recovery depends virtually solely on the Liberal Party, whose losses included the six blue seats in Melbourne, Sydney and Perth that went to the independents.
From Albanese’s point of view, none of the teal occupies a seat that Labor has a chance of winning. They are Dutton’s challenge, not his.
Dutton almost ignored this aspect of the catastrophe on Tuesday when he outlined the way back to power as a tour of the suburbs, regions and small business constituency.
There would be no big business duchess, who she said was more in tune with Labor and the Greens these days, because of her obsession with ESG.
As for the Liberal voters who left the party for the tricks, there was no love. Wealthy voters could face high gas prices, “but in many of the areas we represent, in the suburbs, regional communities, people put $ 20 and $ 40 in the car because they can’t afford to fill up.”
“Similar to electricity bills. There will be an increase in Labor. Let’s be clear, electricity prices will go up under Labor. “
No humility, just a challenge
Arguing in favor of such a binary path and not taking the lesson of climate change, Dutton could be – and was – accused of hearing the loss of the election. It influenced the vote not only in the green seats, but also pushed voters to the Greens in two Queensland seats, and to Labor in seats like Bennelong, Boothby and Tangney.
There was no humility, only defiance.
To support his stated course of action, Dutton cited an initial post-election analysis that showed that while 200,000 voters left the Coalition for the Blue Virgins, 700,000 left the Coalition to vote for right-wing parties.
For example, at the Hume headquarters in NSW, held by Angus Taylor, there was a 7.3 per cent change in the primaries in One Nation, even though the candidate was not seen much and the party did not go annoying at customizing polling booths. Labor has similar stories to tell, especially in Victoria.
He attributed the changes to One Nation and the United Australia Party to what one MP called the “angry factor” greater than usual which was aimed at the two main parties and was a consequence of the COVID-19 hangover. . Dutton called it a “smallpox in both houses” election.
None of these changes to the right cost Liberal seats, but many of them became more marginal.
Some Liberals think the party can get the government back by ignoring the Green Greens, but it’s hard to find 18 suburban and regional seats that the party could pinch Labor in 2025, so it would need some or all six green seats. Especially since the Coalition is still at its highest point in Queensland and Tasmania.
Let them cook for a while
In fact, Dutton has not completely underestimated the green seats.
Within the party, the predominant view is to let those who left the Liberal Party cook for a while the fact that their seat no longer has any push in Canberra.
This will have the help of Labor, which forms a majority government with 77 seats, which allows it to marginalize the 16-member cross-party.
The most important thing in politics is numbers, and if yours doesn’t count, neither do you.
Albanese will treat the bench with respect, but apart from the Greens, with whom he will fight in the Senate, he does not need any.
If Scott Morrison had crossed the line on election day, or if he had been in a position to form a minority government, he would have to heed the blue blues. They would have exerted a great influence.
But from Albania’s point of view, none of the blues occupy a seat that Labor have a chance of winning. They are Dutton’s challenge, not his.
“We will not put them in the eye,” says a minister on the green. “We’re glad they’re staying there because they’re keeping out the other mob.”
Ignoring numeric greens may work, but ignoring what they represent is dangerous. The green blades advocated climate action, restoring integrity and probity, and greater respect for women.
None of this, however, is a weakness for Labor, and their time at the helm will dilute the appeal of the green-green agenda.
Dutton pledged to address the issue of integrity by supporting the anti-corruption commission proposed by Independent MP Helen Haines, while new Liberal Deputy Leader Sussan Ley has pledged to rebuild bridges with women voters. Only the absence of Morrison and Barnaby Joyce, who disabled women voters, will help in this regard.
Dutton still believes there is room for choice in the fight against climate change. It is a risk, but slightly mitigated by the catastrophic energy crisis that has greeted the new government and revived gas demand.
After three years of constant complaints about how useless the Morrison government was at all, Labor’s first response to the crisis was to blame its predecessor and say there was nothing that could be done immediately.
Not entirely “I don’t have a hose,” but it’s definitely not what voters want to hear.