20 rounds have been won and played with just three weeks to go until the start of the final.
As the finish line approaches, here’s what we learned from the weekend’s ladder training results.
Carlton’s inconsistency looks set to cost them a flag tilt
Carlton’s loss to Adelaide has probably cost them a place in the top four.
With 12 wins to their name, the Blues would probably need to win their remaining three games to have any chance of a double.
Easier said than done, especially with Brisbane (away), Melbourne and Collingwood to come.
While we still expect the Blues to play in September, from here it seems likely they will have to do it the hard way and run the gauntlet, a journey only the Bulldogs in 2016 successfully navigated.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for the Blues as it’s losses to St Kilda, Richmond and Adelaide (teams higher up the ladder) since the bye that look set to cost them.
They certainly have enough A-grade talent to compete with any team, but it looks like 2022 won’t be their year considering where they’ll have to come from.
While they can still turn things around and secure a top-four finish, on their current form they would need to find something out of the ordinary to get there.
Let’s see if that can start next Sunday against the Lions.
Geelong’s bottom half has never been stronger
Geelong have long been a perennial contender with a wealth of stars in their line-up, but they look even better in 2022, with consistent contributions throughout their squad.
While A-grade talent is still performing at a high level, the improved caliber of Brad Close, Tom Atkins, Jack Henry, Tyson Stengle, Sam De Koning and Zach Guthrie, among others, is helping to boost the side to new heights.
With Chris Scott’s system and structure coming together, Geelong no longer needs to rely on monster games from their biggest names to get them through against quality outfits, something that could not be said in previous years.
With three rounds remaining and a minor premiership at their mercy, the Cats have never looked set to win it all since 2011, a remarkable thought considering how often they’ve found themselves near the top of scale in the last decade.
While their stars will no doubt steal headlines, if the script goes to plan come September, the difference will be how even this side has turned out.
Victory away from home could start Melbourne’s run
Just when we were starting to question Melbourne’s credentials, they came out and flexed with a 46-point win away to Fremantle, proving their best are almost impossible to stop.
While they’ve gone 4-5 in their last nine games, they’re without first-place wins in July and the Demons will be hoping their form extends now into September.
With three rounds remaining and a top-two finish still looking like their destiny, victory on Friday could be the turning point that sees Simon Goodwin’s side charge from here and back in 2022 .
We’ve seen in recent years how important the final month of the home-and-away season is for current premiers, and the Demons may have timed their run perfectly.
See if they can keep this up for the next seven weeks.
The Magpies are in it to win it with a top four push
Collingwood fans have been anticipating a loss for some time, but with 10 wins in a row, they really find themselves as contenders.
It’s something that seems strange to even contemplate given where they’ve come from, but there’s no arguing against the scale and their win-loss record is as good as any Geelong bar.
While there is still a long way to go for Craig McRae’s side, the return of Jordan De Goey and Brodie Grundy’s pending comeback will give this group of players even more confidence.
Some may point to the fact that the Pies’ recent run has come against non-final opponents, but if you take a closer look at their results, you can see that their game plan compares to anyone’s.
Of the top eight teams, the Pies have beaten Melbourne, Fremantle, Carlton and St Kilda, while only narrowly losing games to Geelong and Brisbane.
Given who they’ll be playing in September, who says this side can’t lean in the first direction? Especially if it’s the top four.
They probably need at least one or two more wins from their last three games to get there, and while they don’t have the easiest run at home, it would take a brave punter to bet against the Fly’s Magpies at this point.
Brisbane’s MCG hoodoo is real
This was the game Brisbane would have circled on their calendar to try and prove the naysayers wrong, but with the loss, their credentials have only been cast in further doubt.
Up by 42 points midway through the second term, it looked like Brisbane would finally put their MCG hoodoo to bed and win at the venue for the first time since 2014, but alas, once again they couldn’t get the job done.
To be fair, Richmond are a far better side than their ladder position and record suggest, but there’s no excuse for coughing up a lead like that when you consider yourself a contender.
If they want to win it all, they will have to do it at the MCG and no matter where they head, they could find themselves at the home of football in week one or two of the finals series.
There could be no better time to do it in September, but there must be genuine concerns in Brisbane if they can do it on the biggest stage.
It’s another hurdle this side has failed to jump.
It’s a big week for Fremantle
Just as they looked destined to finish the season strongly, Fremantle have had three poor weeks to almost cost them a top four spot.
With losses to Sydney and Melbourne and a draw with Richmond, the Dockers find themselves half a game or a game-and-a-half out of the double-chance slots with just three weeks remaining.
To finish in the top four, Justin Longmuir’s side will likely need to be flawless from here, and that starts with a big game against the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night.
Win that and they’ll go as favorites against the Eagles and Giants in the last fortnight with 15 wins under their belt.
They lose, and will almost certainly be destined for an elimination final, which would be disappointing given how well they were traveling just a month ago.
It’s a huge clash for both teams, the AFL world will be anticipating this result with bated breath.