When will the next iPhones come out, to be successful, the iPhone 13?
David Phelan
The next iPhones will be with us soon. We think we already know a lot about them—how many, what they’ll look like, and how much they might cost—but until recently, the consensus was that they’d be unveiled on Tuesday, September 13th, and go on sale on Friday, September 23rd. Now it seems to be wrong.
August 25 update below. This post was first published on August 22, 2022.
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August 25 update. So, as you’ve probably heard, the cat is out of the bag and Apple has confirmed Wednesday, September 7 as the date for the next special event. In turn, this as good as tells us that the next iPhones, Apple Watches and maybe AirPods Pro will go on sale on Friday, September 16. And that the release of the software for iPhone and Apple Watch will be launched between September 7. and September 16. By the way, I guess the software release is Monday, September 12th.
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Confirmation of the event date came much earlier than most analysts expected (though as you’ll see, at the end of the original post here, I warned that an earlier reveal was possible). In itself, this is interesting, because it shows that Apple is very confident that it has its supply chain under control and can deliver on time – I wouldn’t have been surprised if the new announcement had been made for another week, after all.
Second, it’s worth noting that the invitation, which is titled Far Out, specifies the exact location of the conference: Steve Jobs Theater. This is important because it means there will definitely be an in-person element to the event, and more so than the brief appearances of Tim Cook and Craig Federighi at the start of the WWDC simulcast in June.
Although Mark Gurman had said that Apple had been filming the keynote in advance, I would argue that the specific location hints that it may be more of a return to normal than before, namely a live conference interspersed with sections of video
I have no doubt that the keynote will be followed, as usual, by a hands-on section that will allow guests to see and feel the new products, something that was reintroduced for the press after the WWDC presentation. And since the event promises much more hardware-wise this time around, I’d also expect a return to the hands-on section outside the theater auditorium, rather than the welcome area that was used in ‘last time
Beyond that, the usual Apple Note details will definitely apply. And if you want to know what they are: appetizers, drinks and canapés, often Apple-themed, to greet guests, strict crowd control to let everyone in, groups of people excitedly looking up at the revolving elevator (by the way, very cool) that connects the two floors and a sense of anticipation that grows to an almost unbearable pitch during the half hour before the presentation starts (always precisely on time, you could set your Apple Watch).
Whatever the exact arrangements, it looks set to be a big and memorable event with more products than has been seen at a single conference in years. And there’s still a chance for more to come in October when the Mac, iPad Pro and entry-level iPad are expected to be revealed.
August 23 update. More clues about an imminent launch come from MySmartPrice, which has spotted a new item just appearing as listed by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), with the model number A2882.
Of course, the listing doesn’t have the courtesy of naming the product, no luck, but MySmartPrice thinks it’s likely to be the iPhone 14. India’s National Standards Body currently lists four models, iPhone Xr, iPhone 11, iPhone 12 and iPhone. 13. This additional number, not seen before, may therefore refer to the next model.
What’s interesting about this is that it comes shortly after reports of the iPhone 14 being manufactured in India and that it will be available just a couple of months after launch, which is an intriguing development.
Of course, this list isn’t the same as a set date for the special event or release, but it’s true that database lists like these often arrive just weeks, sometimes days, before it’s announced. officially a product.
For Apple, there’s a tightrope here: revealing enough information to satisfy the standards authorities in a particular country, without giving away anything of substance.
After all, this new product could be nothing more than a power cord. It’s not, because it would have a very different form of code, but the point is that Apple is playing its cards as close to its chest as possible.
By the way, for those who were interested in the nitty-gritty of Mark Gurman’s study of previous announcements and release dates, I checked my own list and here’s the full data.
Year of release of the presentation of the phone
2011 iPhone 4S October 4 October 14
2012 iPhone 5 September 12 September 21
2013 iPhone 5s/5c September 10 September 20
2014 iPhone 6/6 Plus September 10 September 20.
iPhone 6s/6s Plus 2015 September 9 September 25
2016 iPhone 7/7 Plus September 7 September 16 – Exactly the same dates I expect for this year.
2017 iPhone 8/8 Plus/X September 12 September 22
(iPhone X November 3)
iPhone Xs/ Xs Max/Xr 2018 September 12 September 21
2019 iPhone 11/Pro/Pro Max September 10 September 20
2020 iPhone 12/mini/Pro/Pro Max October 13 October 23
2021 iPhone 13/mini/Pro/Pro Max September 14 September 24
what is the date
After Max Weinbach floated the idea that it could be nearly a week earlier, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman corroborated it. Now, Mark Gurman in his latest Power On newsletter has detailed much more what to expect from the release, shedding light on a Wednesday, September 7th unveiling date. Such an early release date is unprecedented, but not far off. If this is correct, it would mean that the iPhone 14 series of phones plus three Apple Watch models will go on sale on Friday, September 16.
September is Apple’s favorite release month
Almost every flagship iPhone since 2011 has launched in September. The only exceptions were in 2021, when Covid-19 meant Apple was late, so the iPhone 12 series launched in October, and in 2011, when the iPhone 4s was the first iPhone released in the fall, also in October.
Digging deeper into the dates, helpfully provided by Gurman, only once has the announcement date been in the first week of September: the 2016 iPhone 7 launch took place on the identical dates we expect this year: will be presented on September 7, on sale nine days later on Friday, September 16.
The usual practice is an announcement on Tuesday in the second full week of September, between September 8 and 15, followed by products going on sale ten days later.
What does a Wednesday keynote really mean?
The reason for Wednesday’s event is revealing. At first glance, it’s just because Monday, September 5 is Labor Day. But wait: This is only relevant if Apple plans to have press and staff travel to an in-person event. An online-only event could take place the day after a holiday.
We also hear from sources like Gurman that the shooting of the high production value lead film is underway. Of course, this is partly a safety precaution: until the invitations actually go out, Apple can fall back on the online version. For example, if there is a sudden spike in Covid infections, it could still just go back on line (although I think that’s unlikely).
In short, Wednesday’s filing date reveals that an in-person event is all but assured.
What will the event be like?
I think the special event on September 7th will follow the same format that WWDC introduced in June. That is, a recorded keynote will be played to the press and guests in Cupertino. Before it begins, CEO Tim Cook and perhaps a few other executives will appear live to kick things off. Says Gurman: “In this scenario, you can expect members of the press to get their hands on new devices afterward.”
Why go early?
As I’ve written before, the earlier date means an extra week of iPhone sales to boost the finances for the quarter ending September 30. As Gurman adds: “Apple had faced a difficult comparison: its sales rose 29% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 2020, making it difficult to match this growth. Another week of iPhone 14 sales should help the company easily surpass last year’s $83 billion mark.
And it seems to confirm that Apple’s supply chain is in poor health.
When will we know for sure?
When the invitations go out. Gurman says, “I’d guess between August 29th and August 31st,” though he would add that Apple has been known to send out invites earlier, so stay tuned. More like we have it.
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